The recovery in the country’s industrial activity continues to recede, as during September the indicator sharpened the signs of weakening and registered a monthly drop of 1.4%, the steepest since April 2020 (when the lockdown began and was 25.1%).
In addition, in its year-on-year comparison, factory production also showed signs of slowing down as it grew only 1.7%, when in August the growth was 5%, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). Compared to the same month of 2019 (prepandemic figure), the level of industrial activity is still 4.9% lower, and the gap even opened because in August the difference was -3.8 percent.
“Industrial activity had a monthly drop of 1.4%, which constitutes a negative surprise for the Mexican economy, since the IOAE of Inegi had anticipated a monthly variation of -0.50%. With these figures, in the third quarter of 2021 there would have been a fall close to 0.40% compared to the previous quarter, so that the bias for the revision of the preliminary GDP figures is downward, “said Marcos in a report. Arias, analyst at Grupo Financiero Monex.
In addition, the specialist pointed out that the 97.3 points that the industrial activity indicator registered in September are lower than the 97.6 with which 2020 closed, so that the performance of the sector moves away from the recovery logic and approaches a slow one. , but progressive, decline. “The performance of the sector is moving away from the logic of recovery and is approaching one of slow, but progressive, decline.”
Mining faces
By components, only mining achieved a modest monthly growth during September: 0.1%, while its annual increase was 2% and is still 0.7% below its pre-pandemic level. Construction fell 1.4% monthly but grew 9.2% annually, and remains 8.5% below the 2019 level.
Regarding the activity in the manufacturing industry, it continues to be affected by the collapse in the supply and distribution chains and registered a monthly drop of 1.3% in September and an annual drop of 0.5 percent. Compared to 2019, the drop was 4.7 percent.
Within manufacturing, the effects were major in the tanning industry (-6.9% monthly), the plastic industry (-4.1%), basic metal products (-3.7%), computer equipment (-9.0%) and the automotive industry (-8.8%).
Bad streak will be lengthened
Specialists agree that industrial activity will remain weak in the coming months. “Although the expectation of a solid demand, especially external, supports the outlook for the Mexican industry, it will continue to limit bottlenecks in production, an issue that could deteriorate due to the recent increase in infections in some parts of the world and if they materialize an energy crisis during the winter, “said Alejandro Saldaña, from Grupo Financiero Ve Por Más, in a report.
Along the same lines, Marcos Arias, from Monex, pointed out that “the industry in Mexico and the world faces a complex panorama due to the disruption of global value chains that has spread during 2021.”
For Ricardo Aguilar Abe, chief economist at Invex Banco, something positive is that factors such as high transportation costs or traffic jams in closed ports have given way.
The industry in Mexico and the world faces a complex panorama due to the disruption of the global value chains that has spread during 2021. Going forward, the diffusion indicators show that the problem persists and will be difficult to solve in the short term ”.
MarcosArias, analyst at Grupo Financiero Monex
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx