More results from the previews

In the same year as we live, he continues to make preoccupying announcements about the global economic evolution realized by the various international organisms. Expression expressions, such as “brusque aterrizaje”, “severo enfriamiento” or “una carrera de obstáculos”, do not transmit much confidence in the future, empezando por este ao.

Those who anticipate are more comfortable anticipating negative future scenarios. The bottom line is that, if you are committed, your contribution as a guru and if you equate and cause you to lie more than you say, the people will have content that will eliminate your prognostic error. The doctors are experts in this control of the cognitive sexes, but the economists do not let them down. This explains why there is accumulating information on risks and forecasts regarding the evolution of the world economy in this year that, together with them, there is a panoramic view.

Intending to create a global summary that includes the traditional ‘Global Analysis of Riesgos 2022’ of the World Economic Forum, has the recent information from the World Bank, Monetary Fund and OECD, agrarians in six of the possible points of attention that should be taken into account world.

We look for the most obvious: the recent tension surrounding two key foci like its Ukraine and Taiwan, scenarios where defining the dibujo of the world in the middle of the place and the new paper of each potential. With China and Russia allied to try to prove their ambitions, while the decline of North American hegemony was greatly debated during Trump’s presidency, as well as the irrelevance of the European Union in these matters. The end of history is not produced, as it is, with the cause of communism and we can not do anything about it, nor the triumph of liberal democracy as a hegemonic system.

The persistence of the covid pandemic is another risk that will affect the economic economy of the world, in a triple aspect: the possibility of rebates with new measures that oblige to maintain restrictions on the movements y, in the scenario to convince with the manner of endemic manner, the time needed to cover this situation that the OMS does not consider possible, of mediados de año. A global panorama in which it has evacuated 61% of the population, but with important differences between developed countries and the rest, anticipates that the virus will be present, with a detached paper, at least, during this third year of pandemic. With this, the difference in the vigor of recovery, both between economic sectors, as between countries, according to the level of vacancy and the importance that personal mobility possesses in its absence, is enshrined.

The risk of entering a global economic recovery phase is also present. Some, in addition, recover in this context the persistence of inflation in order to move on, including ‘stangflación’ as in the mid-70s of the past week. The problem is not so many years of crime that we have lost the pandemic, but not much that a number of countries in the country are currently regressing levels of welfare, including, in the crisis of 2007. The problem is that all the forecasts contemplate a rapid recovery in contrast to the degree provoked by the covid in 2020, but with a decremental evolution in the coming years. Thus, for example, the OECD anticipates a 5.6% global crime rate for this year, which will be 4.5% next year and 3.2% in 2023. We have had L. Summers launch the thesis the secular state of affairs is linked to the perceived impact of digitalisation on productivity and, in particular, revisions.

The light against the climatic cambio is, also, focus on geoeconomic tensions in the world. Exacerbated by the scientific evidence that we are witnessing an ecological disorder, between sectors and countries, which greatly exacerbates the consequence of market objectives in the Paris Accords. The transition to a net emissions company will be accompanied by much congestion in some sectors, such as electricity, and very few other countries, in the midst of increased incentives for citizens and without compromising on financial compromises in countries. These adjustments aggravate the impact of recent involuntary migrations, with tensions on the front lines being seen in advanced countries, as well as the negative symbol that it is, the refugee camp in the island of Lesbos.

The ultimate risk that is known is the important crime of deuda. Specifically, the year of covid experiment the mayor increased the debt in one year, from the final of the Second World War. A collection of these 28 attributable percentage points, in the media, in the states and families and companies. In addition, since 2007 as a reference, the global public debt has doubled as a percentage of GDP, while the private ‘solo’ has increased by 50 basic points. If the actual price of prices consolidates as inflation and accelerates the plans of the central banks, with the Federal Reserve in the cape, to return its monetary policies including including the types of interest rates this year, the surge on excess In addition, there will be many accusations, about everything in these lands of rent, where, in addition, there are problems with the transparency of their accounts, about everything, those lands that respond to natural resources without valuation, without property, clarified.

For the last time, but not important, it is a sign as a risk the increase of desigualdad between lands and, within these, between social groups. In the latest Oxfam news release, titled ‘The matan desigualdades’, it was reported that, during the covid, “the two richest men in the world have doubled their fortunes, while the 99% of the world’s population are deterred. ».

Related News

Fragmentation is rising around the world, due to social and political tensions. Superados the first months of lucha conjunct against a global amenity, as a result of the pandemic, it has impressed the egoistic logic of group and nation.

For this reason, the Guarantee of National Security of the United States is based in China, as “the only competitor capable of mounting a challenge supported by an unstable international system and having” while Russia “is determined to improve its global gap in disruption. world scenario “. We note that there are curves. O eso dicen.