Game 5 of the National League Division Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers need to win by any means possible to continue their quest for a two-time MLB championship. It is announced that the Mexican pitcher, Julio Urías, will be responsible for opening in what will be one of the most important challenges of his career, but just a few hours later, manager Dave Roberts changes his decision and replaces him with Corey Knebel. Criticism and insults do not stop raining on Roberts, but the strongest questioning goes the other way: has sabermetrics already seized control in baseball?
“People who believe that these are crazy decisions, that they are not being made correctly, is because they do not know the theory. It is very easy to show mathematically why what the managers are doing maximizes the chances of victory. We saw this caravan of relievers this postseason, where most of it was close games, like chess. When you have to win the game, you do all the strategy trying to maximize each of the possibilities ”, explains Tadeo Varela, specialist in statistical analysis of baseball at Mariachis de Guadalajara and with experience in the Mexican team at the Tokyo Olympics.
Varela starts his analysis for El Economista by explaining that there is a wrong approach to sabermetrics: “In the United States now it is simply called statistical analysis. I do not like to differentiate between new and old school, baseball is still the same, strategies change but it is because now there is more data. If this had been available earlier, the change would have been made as well. Many people say that it is a paradigm shift as if now they wanted to play another baseball and it is not true, it is simply that now they have different data ”.
He points out that, in effect, there were more movements of starters by relievers in the recent postseason, but all derived from the statistical analysis departments, which are already present in all Major League teams and in which there are at least 10 people between mathematicians and other specialists. Although they have gained more and more weight, the voice of the manager is still key.
“The manager’s role remains the same: to be the face and leader of a team and that has different tasks. One is to create a very good working environment within the club house, harmony among all the players; make decisions that favor having a better chance of winning, but now all of this is assisted by a multidisciplinary staff and by an accumulation of numbers and information that help make better decisions. I do not want to say that they are all correct, but what this material gives you is that it puts you in a much more favorable position “, defines Gabriel Medina, sports director of the Mexican Baseball League (LMB) and who has witnessed three World Series, including the most recent in the Braves title over Astros.
The managers of this series, Dusty Baker (Astros) and Brian Snitker (Braves), entered history as the oldest pair combined in a World Series, adding up to 72 and 66 years, respectively. That generated curiosity about how much modernity and sabermetrics they could handle in the performance of their teams, but the answer was given by positioning themselves as the best of the season.
“Obviously they are very senior managers that a lot of people would hope they weren’t so fond of new trends, but that’s the opposite of what we saw. Looking at stats, only one pitcher completed the inning series, no one made it to sixth except for Max Freid (in Game 6), numerous defensive shifts, and all sorts of strategies. Atlanta is the champion team with the highest rate of runs scored per homer, we saw a paradigm shift ”, describes Tadeo Varela.
But in addition to statistics, Baker and Snitker showed their good group management and decision-making, something that machines cannot give: “They brought forcefulness to decisions. Their hand did not shake to pinch Zack Greinke or to remove José Urquidy from the starting role in the Astros, for example, or in Atlanta, to make adjustments in a rotation that was cut short with the departure of Charlie Morton. The gift of command and leadership remains. In a previous meeting, the staff provides them with information and once the playball is launched, the coaches will have communication with the manager, but in the end, the one who has the last word is the manager and no one else ”, says Gabriel Medina.
What percentage of a World Series title can be attributed to specialized statistics?
“It is a multifactorial issue and I consider that this sabermetric information has a percentage of around 33%, because it would add 33% to the talent of each of the players and another 33% to the correct decision-making based on the situation of the game. For example, knowing if a player had a good night, a family problem, a health problem, nervousness, stage fright, these kinds of things are not given to you by statistics, ”says the LMB manager.
The specialists emphasize that the data analysis was reflected more in this postseason in the changes of pitchers, the special formations or shifts, the scarcity of stealing bases and in the handling of the bullpen. They indicate that the use of specific statistics is not exclusive to this year, although they do highlight the situations mentioned.
“The year 2002 was the watershed in which it became public that a team was using statistical analysis to try to gain an advantage, we have seen since then that these changes have been gradually made, the number of decisions that can be altered have been maximized. The use of pitchers is something that was greatly accentuated this year and that was still a bit of a taboo. The managers had no regrets or compassion about retiring pitchers and we saw that they accepted it well. Twenty years ago, removing a pitcher would have been a conflict that would have removed the manager’s position and the public would have crucified the board, ”says Varela.
Specifically on the changes in the pitchers, the Mariachis de Guadalajara analyst points out that they are due to the fact that now there are an infinity of precise details that reveal which pitcher is better for a certain batter, something very different from a few decades ago, when the decision it was only taken to know if the rival was left-handed or right-handed.
“Baseball has become an ocean of statistics, so now there is not just one analyst, but a team that must outline what information they are going to give priority to. The decision begins by seeing if he is left-handed or right-handed, then studying individual matches, how those batters have fared against the pitcher’s repertoire. Third, knowing what the batters’ tendencies are, what pitches they seem to be most vulnerable to, and another variable is how many times you want that pitcher to face that line up. “
The Braves had a 0.3% chance of winning the World Series in July, according to Fangraphs figures, however, the championship came thanks to the optimal combination of statistical analysis and the thrust of emotions from the manager and other coaching staff.
“We see managers with influence in knowing how to motivate and there you realize that not everything is statistics, you see the human factor that was evident in this World Series with some Braves who returned, they were focused on their goal and on the other hand the Astros, why not There may be another more booed team in MLB and they brought in Dusty Baker because they knew he could take criticism, yelling and impress that atmosphere of security in the club house. They are teams that came against all odds, they knew how to go back and that is important, the spirit of the logout, transmitting that victorious spirit, that psychological part that cannot be quantified but does affect the game ”, concludes Tadeo Varela.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx