Will AMLO have a lost sex?

Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased 0.1% in the quarter from last year, with respect to the third quarter, in line with the deficit report at 31 January, by the United Kingdom. If we take into account that in the third quarter it was 0.4% against the second, then we conclude that the Mexican economy is in recession.

As far as Hacienda’s secretary, Gabriel Yorio, is concerned, this is the past four days: offers shocks that are experimenting the world ”.

We record that an economy is in recession when the PIB is contraindicated during the consecutive quarters and that, with its pandemic and effects due to “shock shocks”, a recession is a recession and its effects on people and companies.

In the case of our country, the situation is complicated and we consider that the contraction took place in third-party activities, which are contributing to 66% of GDP and generating 63% of employees.

El Inegi includes within the third activities a: commerce; restaurants, hotels and other accommodation services; transport, communications, correspondence and publicity; professional, financial and corporate services; social services; various services and; goberno and international organisms.

And it is precisely the GDP of these activities that decreased in the second semester of last year after having increased 1.0% and 1.2% in the first and second quarters, respectively.

The lack of dynamism of the tertiary sector explains why the national GDP only increased 5% in 2021 and not the 6.3% that predicted the Secretariat of Hacienda, number of which President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to ensure, in the end of November passed , which effectively created 6% of the economy before making it 0.4% in the third quarter. I want to see who is to blame for not making his prognosis complete.

Based on available information, it is clear that GDP will not rise to the level it raised in 2018. It is still 1,222 trillion dollars. In 2019, first year of the AMLO governing body and without a medium-term pandemic following the cancellation of the construction of the new CDMX International Airport hub, increased by 1,269 trillion, which is a tendency to emcee in 2016. In 2020 the pandemic caused the PIB alone to make 1,074 trillion dollars and that by 2021 it will rise to 1,128 trillions, after increasing 5%.

The Mexican economy is high, according to AMLO’s governor, 7.7% lower than the wealthy Enrique Peña Nieto.

By 2022, the SHCP estimates that GDP will increase by 4.1%, to the extent that the pandemic is declining over the world economies, there are some experts who believe that this percentage will increase. Each has its own size that ensures the 2% increment will be maximized. To be sure, in this year the PIB tampoco will launch the tamaño that two in 2019.

Will you launch it in 2023 or 2024 or later? Will there be a sex loss from AMLO? If you accept apuestas …

Eduardo Ruiz-Healy

Journalist and producer

Invited column

Opinador, columnist, lecturer, media trainer, 35 years of experience in communication media, microempresario.


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