The consensus of the polls is a shrug emoji. The general assumption, while the main candidates make their final arguments, remains that this election could go either way.
Another collective wisdom, with six days left in the campaign, is that last week’s debates must have had a favorable impact on the Liberal Party effort. Most polls show that a small but steady lead of the Conservatives has evaporated in the days since, despite the beating Justin Trudeau took on the stage of debate for his record six years as prime minister.
But is that really the case?
A weekend survey from Innovative Research to Maclean’s It implies that the debates did not have a clear winner overall, all the leaders managed to rally their bases, and all the leaders left a better impression on those who saw the debate than on those who simply heard about the debate.
The survey took the pulse of 1,831 Canadians from Friday to Sunday. It was weighted to be representative of the Canadian population, but the pollster says margins of error are not available due to the online format.
In last week’s French contest, Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois had a slight advantage over Trudeau among Quebec voters, while Trudeau won according to the rest of Canada. In the English edition, Trudeau won, according to Quebecers; in the rest of the country, Erin O’Toole garnered the best reviews, but Jagmeet Singh and Annamie Paul fared best among non-aligned voters.
The same survey tracked down other trends that might be more relevant as we try to guess why the front-line numbers are adjusting in the final days of the campaign.
Almost three-quarters of those surveyed, 73%, say they are “very concerned about what could happen to this country if the wrong government is chosen.” The majority, 57 percent, reported being disappointed in Trudeau and his liberal government. A similar number, 59 percent, say they are upset with their decision to call an election, although only 12 percent would consider themselves less likely to vote for Liberals as a result.
But despite their discontent with Trudeau, on politics, respondents said they believe liberals would fare better than conservatives in most categories: on climate change, gun violence, women’s rights. , contain new waves of COVID-19 and, by small margins, “help people like you make ends meet,” “help people like you get by” and “make housing more affordable.” Despite offering a pretty solid policy book that tried to check all of those boxes, the Conservatives have only a slight edge in the economic recovery, though they do enjoy, unsurprisingly, a big edge in balancing the budget.
The survey confirms that fear of a conservative government coming to power is lower than in 2019 under Andrew Scheer, and 36 percent of respondents agree that the “most important” thing in the election would be to prevent it from Conservatives come to power, compared with 41 percent who agreed with the same in 2019. This could be why liberals have had a harder time making the ghost attacks stick.
Perhaps the most interesting finding is one that sheds some light on the rise of Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada, which currently has 6.2 percent support in the 338Canada poll aggregator projection.
The poll found that 25 percent of those polled who believe the pandemic restrictions are “too strict” intend to vote for the splinter party. Another 37 percent would vote for the Conservatives. At the other end of the spectrum, among people who think the restrictions are “too flexible,” there is no support for Bernier, but 35 percent favor O’Toole.
Whether the Conservatives enjoy the support of both groups will remain difficult for O’Toole as he navigates his position on vaccine mandates. But the fact that Bernier is the only comfortable option for people who are against vaccines may be the biggest problem. In 2019, when the PPC was much weaker, the Conservatives lost a handful of bypasses due to the small number of defectors from Bernier’s tribe. The dent could be bigger this time.
If a tree falls in the forest …?
An Abacus Data poll conducted over the weekend found that only 12 percent of 2,000 respondents said they were following this election “very closely,” pollster David Coletto noted on POLITICO on Tuesday. Another 29 percent follow “pretty closely,” but 47 percent just a little and 11 percent not at all. About a third of those who haven’t been paying much attention to date are just starting to do so, Coletto said.
Greg Lyle of Innovative Research notes that there has been a recent drop in voters seeking more information from parties, from 47% to 35%. At the same time, respondents’ attention is “flat,” he says, and 40 percent hear nothing from any campaign. “This suggests that as people tune in, those who have made a decision are tying off.” “
Looking at the specific debate figures from Lyle’s weekend poll, one of the most remarkable statistics was that most Canadians didn’t bother to look at the debates at all.
Although 26 percent of Quebec respondents watched at least part of the French debate on Wednesday and only 11 percent of non-Quebecers tuned in. The audience was larger for Thursday’s English-language debate: 20 percent of Quebecers tuned in along with 36 percent of respondents in the rest of Canada, though less than half of them saw it all. Still, much larger contingents, usually half, reported hearing nothing on the matter.
Perhaps those voters had already made a decision about whom to support. Perhaps they were expecting a futile shouting match. Perhaps they weren’t expecting to learn anything from the tired debate formats. Maybe they were still hungover from last year’s US presidential election (yes: last year) or burned out after the last provincial contest.
Perhaps they were simply exasperated at the very idea that an election campaign was taking place. (Lyle’s poll seems to suggest it.) Perhaps they decided to prioritize enjoying the last days of a relatively “normal” summer before the cold weather and the school year and the Delta-driven fourth wave and renewed social anxiety. Maybe they got buried in the TV show they’ve been getting into lately, because they’re into season three and the important thing is to know if Jack and Kate will make it off the island.
Whatever the reason for the indifference of Canadians towards the debates, these figures follow closely with the audience during the last two elections. It is the norm.
But no matter how this election shakes up what is likely to be a tough election night, it’s worth remembering, next time, that few voters decided it was worth spending their time watching leaders clash. Perhaps it is worth asking what we can do to change that. Or the fact that a large minority of them won’t bother to vote at all.
Reference-www.macleans.ca