More than 80 percent of eligible Ontarians have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and, with the possibility of vaccines being offered to young children in the coming months, the family pattern of new infections of the pandemic, wave after wave, could soon subside. .
Scientists believe that as more people increase their immunity to the virus, either through vaccination or infection, cases in Ontario are on their way to falling to endemic levels as early as spring, provided of course not. a more communicable and elusive variant of the vaccine is developed. his head meanwhile.
The implication of COVID-19 becoming endemic – that is, virus infections that occur at some constant reference level in the population – is that we will simply have to learn to live with it.
“Unless we can vaccinate beyond the level of herd immunity, we will always have cases,” said David Earn, professor of mathematics and professor of scientific research in mathematical epidemiology at McMaster University. “Herd immunity is this wonderful goal that seemed plausible at the beginning of the pandemic, but with the Delta variant being so contagious and vaccines not being absolutely perfect at preventing transmission, I think it is an unattainable goal at this time.”
Living with an endemic prevalence of COVID does not have to be a life sentence for our work and social life, or for our economy; To date, vaccination against the virus has proven to be incredibly effective in preventing serious illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths. Experts harbor a ray of hope that COVID looks a lot like other endemic diseases we’ve become accustomed to, such as influenza and the rhinovirus, which causes the common cold, which do not lead to widespread negative health outcomes or serious health restrictions. public.
In other words, we take some risk but we don’t let it ruin our lives.
“That’s the goal of vaccines – to turn a very serious disease into a mild disease,” said Dr. Jeff Kwong, professor of public health and family medicine at the University of Toronto. “You get COVID and it’s like a cold … you’ll be sick for a few days, you’ll recover and then you can get on with your life.”
While the hope is that we can reach some level of COVID-19 endemicity in Canada sometime early next year after vaccinating children between the ages of five and 11, such aspiration could be tempered by the emergence of An even more powerful and transmissible variant than the formidable Delta, a scenario according to experts is not out of the question.
Already a new variant, called Mu, has spread to about 50 countries, including Canada, since it was first detected in Colombia in January. Mu, which was added to the World Health Organization list of variants of interest in August, it is believed to be better at evading immunity than Delta, but it does not appear to be as transmissible. Still, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO infectious disease epidemiologist and COVID-19 technical lead, argues that Delta, which is on the WHO’s most serious list of variants of concern, remains dominant throughout. the world.
“In countries that have Mu and Delta, Delta outperformed Mu”, Verkove said this week during a WHO press conference, noting that Delta has now spread to more than 185 countries.
“It is more transmissible and is outperforming other variants,” he added.
While endemicity seems the worst option given that there will continue to be pockets of unvaccinated people in all age groups, getting there could take longer if, through its continuous transmission, Delta mutates into something stronger.
The more a virus reproduces, the more opportunities there are for random mutations to be introduced. Most mutations amount to nothing, but occasionally a virus will develop a “gain-of-function” mutation that can make it more transmissible and resistant. At worst, Delta mutates to the point where it can bypass our immune system and the vaccine.
“Unfortunately, SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that is showing that it can evolve that is relevant in this way,” Earn said. “We have to get to the point where most of the world is vaccinated to reduce the number of opportunities for new evolution.”
In that regard, Ontario has done well, relatively speaking. More than 86 percent of adults in the province have received at least one dose, while nearly 81 percent have been fully vaccinated. And with Pfizer-BioNTech announcing this week that it plans to submit encouraging data on a trial of its vaccine in children ages five to 11 to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Sometime next month, approval in this country it could come before the end of the year.
This week, British Columbia health official Dr. Bonnie Henry said her province was “actively preparing” to vaccinate children between the ages of six and 11 with the Pfizer vaccine if Health Canada approves it.
Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto, said that while most parents will be eager to get their children vaccinated, some will not.
“It is important that we do not alienate those who are honestly concerned about the lack of data, especially since we know that the size of the study sample, approximately 1,500 vaccinated, is insufficient to guarantee our safety,” he said. “That being said, for COVID, the vaccine is always better than the infection.”
Putting blows on the arms of young children will not stop the pandemic, emphasized Dr. Peter Juni, Ontario’s chief scientific officer. COVID-19 Scientific Advisory Tablebut it could change its face to the extent that we can be less concerned about the risk of transmission in schools. This would translate into a reduced chance of being forced to close classrooms or schools due to outbreaks, as well as reducing the likelihood that Ontario’s limited number of pediatric ICU beds will be overwhelmed with infected children.
“The threats to children between the ages of five and 11 in this pandemic have never been higher than they are now. For children, unlike all other age groups, there is no vaccine protection that partially outweighs the increased risk associated with Delta … there is increased pressure due to higher contact rates in general society and among the children, ”Juni said. “The point is, once we have the children vaccinated, we will have one less parameter to consider when controlling the pandemic.”
For its part, Pfizer Canada says it plans to submit its test data to Health Canada to support a possible authorization, but was unable to provide specific timelines.
“We share the urgency of providing the data that could help support the regulatory authorities’ decision to make the vaccine available to school-age children as soon as possible,” said Pfizer Canada spokeswoman Christina Antoniou.
Why doesn’t vaccinating children end the pandemic? Too many people in other age groups remain unvaccinated, Juni explained. Instead, endemicity will come through more painful means.
“There is this uneven transition to endemicity that includes the majority of people who are not vaccinated who become infected and therefore develop immunity,” he said. “The last frontier is actually reached once probably more than 95% of the entire population has achieved immunity in one form or another.”
Reference-www.thestar.com