Was Duncan Keith worth the price that Ken Holland paid for him? just maybe

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Duncan Keith isn’t just playing strong hockey, he’s been crushing it for almost three months now, so much so that it’s fair to ask again if Keith was worth the high price that Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland paid in acquiring him.

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Just maybe.

It certainly didn’t look like that was the case early in the season, when Keith’s level of performance was nowhere near what you’d happily — or even grudgingly — pay for a d-man earning $5.54 million per year.

That cost alone was way out of whack with Keith’s OK puck-moving but utterly leaking defensive work. In his first 20 games of the 2021-22 season he was repeatedly getting caught out of position and was too often unable to shut down attacking plays down his wing.

And, of course, on top of his cap hit, there was also the fact Edmonton had moved young d-man Caleb Jones for Keith, not to mention a second or third round pick in the 2022 entry draft (depending on how well Oilers do in playoffs this year).

There was plenty of grumbling about the Keith trade when it was madeand that did not slow for the first quarter of the season.

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It was all fair comment, all reasonable complaints, all justified by the risk presented by Keith’s age and declining performance in Chicago, along with the high acquisition cost and cap hit.

Of course, not having closely watched Keith play in the 2020-21 for Chicago, and not having put in the necessary video review of his play, I tried to withhold judgment on the trade, to keep my powder dry. I didn’t want to prejudge the matter. If I took a strong stance for or against the deal, it would undoubtedly color my take on the player this season, as I would no doubt try to justify my initial assessment. It’s not easy for any individual to admit when he or she is wrong, and I’m not any better than anyone else on that count, which is why I’m now so leery to weigh in with an insta-take on who won or lost any particular trade.

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At first, watching the player closely and engaging in intensive video review of his play with the Oilers early this season, I wasn’t super keen on Keith, especially with his iffy defensive work. That said, in mid-January I noted the old veteran d-man put together a run of six really solid games for the first time as an Oiler.

That run of six games has now been stretched out to 23 games, with Keith’s very best performances in the last few weeks. In other words, the longer he’s with the Oilers, the more he gets used to his new defensive partners and teammates, the better Duncan Keith has been. I now see the player who delighted Chicago fans for many years.

His numbers on Grade A shots plus-minus for the past 23 games are really good. He’s had a high level of success springing his teammates with passes for Grade A shots, while he’s greatly cut down on mistakes in his own end leading to Grade A shots against.

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Indeed, in the last 23 games he’s playing at a great level of two-way play for a Top 4 d-man. He’s now earning his cap hit. And if he can help the team advance into and within the playoffs, I’ll also suggest he’s been worth what the team paid for him in total acquisition cost.

It’s too early to say that just now. The fair comment on him is a careful suggestion that just now, and for the past 23 games, he’s earned that huge cap hit. He’s getting it done for the Oilers.

Will that continue? Much will depend on whether or not Keith can stay healthy. If he can, I expect him to shine for the rest of the year like he’s done for almost three months now.

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