DENVER — There is a mathematical formula to being physically exhausted and it goes something like this.
Fatigue develops when the oxygen requirement of the active skeletal muscles exceeds the heart’s capacity to further supplement oxygen delivery to exercising muscle. Once that occurs, the energy generation comes only from anaerobic metabolism, which is when your lungs cannot put enough oxygen into the bloodstream to keep up with the demands of your muscles for energy.
Or as Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen put it: “I think, you know, it’s physics that when you get rest you’re rested.”
That’s probably a better way of explaining why the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are down 0-2 in the Stanley Cup final, looked like they were gasping for air following a lopsided 7-0 loss in Game 2 against the well-rested Colorado Avalanche.
After all, it wasn’t just the mile-high altitude that has sucked the oxygen from the Lightning’s lungs.
In the past three years, there hasn’t been much rest for the two-time defending champions. They’ve played far more games than any team in the NHL. And they haven’t necessarily been easy games, in particular this year. There was a tough, seven-game series against the Maple Leafs in the first round. And they had to claw their way back after trailing the New York Ranges 0-2 in the Eastern Conference final.
That takes a toll, both mentally and physically. Add it up and it shouldn’t be surprising that the Lightning are playing like a team that is running on smokes.
“The toll is taken in the playoffs. That’s the toll,” Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said before hopping on a plane back to Tampa Bay for a pivotal Game 3 on Monday. “And the shot blocking, the groins, the hips, the cuts, the bruises, playing every second night. That’s the toll. And so when you get to the end, even though it doesn’t look like they’re banged up, they’re missing guys, we’re missing guys. We’ve got banged up guys. That’s what the playoff toll does.”
We don’t know — and we probably won’t know until the playoffs end — what injuries the Lightning have accumulated in this year’s post-season. But in a battle of attrition, it’s clear that they’ve accumulated a lot of extra miles on their bodies. Certainly more than Colorado, which breezed its way to a 14-2 record after sweeping Nashville and Edmonton in previous rounds.
Heading into the Stanley Cup final, Colorado had been off for eight days. The Lightning had just three days of rest, which included flying halfway across the country, where they have had to adjust to a time change and a change in altitude.
“If you play every other day for a long period of time, it’s going to wear you down,” said Rantanen. “But they’ve been here before, they’ve played too long seasons before so we can’t think about that too much that we’re the fresh team.”
The Avalanche look more than just fresh. They look hungry, like a team that is aware of just how close they are to winning a championship. The Lightning, meanwhile, appear to be moving in slow motion, as though they could use a nap — or a long summer of rest.
Not that anyone is using it as an excuse.
“I think having the ultimate goal of the Stanley Cup in the building and there’s only two teams left, that trumps everything,” said Cooper. “I’m not a believer in ‘You’ve played a lot of hockey.’ Isn’t that what you want to do? I’d rather be playing hockey than having a five-month summer every year. This is what we play for. This is what we coach for.”
Still, Colorado is aware of the toll that three straight appearances in the final has taken on Tampa Bay. Ever since the first shift in Game 1, the Avalanche have made a point of not just pressing the Lightning with an aggressive, five-man forecheck — but also in making sure they take a body whenever they can.
The Avalanche had 43 hits in Game 1. And another 46 hits in Game 2.
Much of the abuse has been levied against Tampa Bay’s defense, particularly against minute-munchers such as Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh. As a result, the Lightning’s breakout has been a series of bad passes, turnovers and, at best, chipped-out pucks.
“We had the puck a lot,” Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson said of Game 2. “I think that was a lot of it. We forechecked really, really well. We played as a connected five-man unit all over the ice. Our forecheck was probably the key. When these on offense are pressing the way that we have, it’s tough to play against. So I think right from the get-go our forecheck was on and I think that made the biggest difference.”
“Obviously, that’s a big thing about the playoffs,” Rantanen said of playing physical. “We don’t really think about the fact that they’ve been playing long seasons the last two years. We’re just kind of going at it with a simple plan of our forecheck has to be a factor, and our speed. And last night we did it. They had some trouble breaking the puck out and we just have to keep doing the exact same thing.”
What do the Lightning need to do?
Well, as Steven Stamkos said following the Game 2 loss, they need to “man up” and find that extra gear. Based on their track record, don’t be surprised if they do it. But the more Colorado pushes the pace and finishes its hits, the more you have to wonder if there’s anything left in Tampa Bay’s tank to get them a third straight championship.
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