After the internal earthquake caused in the party by the elections in Castilla y León, which even ended up engulfing the leader himself, the PP has launched its second ordago of the year at the polls, this time in Andalusia. The Chairman of the Board, Juanma Moreno, has advanced to June 19 the regional elections, scheduled for December, in search of a more stable majority, after four years of coalition government with Ciudadanos. However, the threat that the popular ones remain in the hands of the far right again, to which they have already given access to the Executive of Castilla y León, looms again over the formation that he now directs Alberto Nunez Feijoo.
The average of all the polls published from last November to this Monday, June 13, the last legal day to broadcast polls, certifies this danger for the PP, which, although it would manage to win the elections and take away from the PSOE the condition of force most voted, I would also see how the extreme right of Vox would sign a new electoral escalation, in this case in the community where it premiered in the Spanish institutions in 2018. Those elections were won by the socialists, but the alliance of PP and Cs ended four decades of PSOE hegemony in the community.
Five days before the appointment with the polls, the PP of Juanma Moreno maintains a comfortable lead and leads the forecasts with 36.2% of the votes (seven tenths more than a week ago) and 10.9 points ahead of the PSOE (two points more than 7 days ago). The former mayor of Seville John Swords it would remain with 25.3% of the votes (half a point less than a week ago). The popular ones would grow 15 points compared to the regional elections of 2018, while the socialists, who then concurred with susana diaz as headliners, they would fall back two and a half points.
The ultra-rightists of vox they would jump to third position with 16.7% of the votes, five and a half points more than the previous elections, in an escalation from which they would come out badly again citizens. The orange party would chain its umpteenth electoral debacle and would drop 14.5 points compared to 2018, going from 18.3% to 3.6% of the ballots. Vox has fallen half a point in the last two weeks, while Cs has remained the same.
In the alternative left to the PSOE, to the rupture between Can Y Forward Andalusiathe brand that in the last elections joined the purple formation, has added the upheaval caused by the agreement to form the coalition Through Andalusia (in which coexist, among other forces, Podemos, IU and Más País). For Andalusia it stands at 8.7% of the votes, the same as seven days ago; and Adelante Andalucía, at 4.9%, seven tenths more than a week ago.
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The calculations made by EL PERIÓDICO based on a formula used by Ivan Serrano, researcher at the IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute) of the UOC, correspond to the weighted average of the main published surveys. The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, based on the size of the sample (the larger, the greater the value) and the date of the field work (the more recent, the more significant).
Converting these percentages into seats, and compared with the estimates of a week ago, Moreno is 8 seats away from the absolute majority, which in the Andalusian Parliament is set at 55 deputies. The PP has won a deputy in this last week and would obtain 47 seats (21 more than in the last elections), while the PSOE one parliamentarians back and would stay with 32 (one less than in the 2018 elections). vox remains at the 20 representatives of a week ago (8 more than in the previous elections), while Through Andalusia continues with 8 deputies and Forward Andalusia it would only retain 2 of the 17 parliamentarians it achieved in 2018. The red lantern would be citizenswhich would only keep 1 of the 21 harvested four years ago.