Specialists see it as unlikely that in 2023 the Dos Bocas refinery will reach its maximum production capacity of 340,000 barrels per day, as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador predicted on Wednesday.
Gonzalo Monroy, managing partner of the consulting firm on energy issues GMEC, considered that the “most misleading” point on the part of the federal government regarding the new refinery is the start-up testing period, since the president has said that there are only six months, but given the configurations and complexities of the technology that will be put into operation when the cokers are included, “we are talking about between 18 and 24 months after the start-up test”, which will be on July 2.
“Which takes us to the end of 2026, the beginning of 2027. This in the best of scenarios, in the case –again– of the Pemex tests and what has happened in its previous reconfigurations, we would be talking about at least the 2028”, he assured.
At the same time, he asserted once again that the infrastructure for the refinery to start operations is not ready because there are no pipelines or roads that deliver crude oil to the site and therefore, there is no raw material for it to work with. He explained that in Mexico it is very common for delays to occur in projects financed by the Mexican government, it is the most recurring story, especially when it comes to Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) projects.
“The most recent case of a delay is the reconfiguration of Minatitlán where it lasted for more than six years and still today, in 2022 and after almost 10 years, the coker has not been able to work 100% and we have seen its level of use below 30%,” he said.
Yesterday, Wednesday, President López Obrador said that Mexico will stop importing gasoline starting next year.
“The commitment we have is to stop buying gasoline and diesel, to be self-sufficient in 2023, and it is the commitment that we are going to fulfill.”
At a morning press conference, he explained that the Dos Bocas or Olmeca refinery, located in Paraíso, Tabasco, which will be inaugurated on July 2, will produce fuels until the tests are completed; “It can take up to a year,” he said. But he denied that the trial period is at least two years.
“The truth is that a testing period is going to begin, we are going to inaugurate the refinery, but knowing that a process of some plants is beginning. It is a monumental, enormous thing; we are talking about hundreds of plants, of equipment and everything must be harmonized to obtain the fuel. So it’s going to take time.”
López Obrador assured that as soon as the new refinery comes into operation, about two million refineries will be processed in the country, together with the other six existing refineries and the Deer Park plant, located in Texas, United States of America. daily barrels of oil.
“That will allow us to have around 800 barrels of gasoline a day and about 500, 600 of diesel,” he said, in order to achieve “self-sufficiency.”
The current refineries currently process a total of 840,000 barrels of crude oil per day, an amount that will increase to 1,200,000.