Presidential approval has been one of the most commented indicators throughout the three years of López Obrador’s government. Thanks to the proliferation of online polls and telephone polls, the popularity of the Tabasco politician has been measured in the media more than that of any other president of the Republic in Mexico.
The consensus among opinion analysts, reflected in the survey of polls published by Oráculus on its website, indicates that López Obrador reaches the second half of his six-year term with wide popularity. On average, 64% of citizens have a favorable opinion of its management.
But the consensus is broken when you enter the field of explanations. This has generated an interesting debate regarding what are the causes of the persistent popularity of President López Obrador, despite the poor results of his administration. Family income has declined over the past three years, especially among those living in poverty.
The Mexican National Electoral Study carried out by the CIDE Political Studies Division allows us to contrast the explanations with the empirical evidence provided by a survey that has been carried out since 1997, a few days after the federal elections. In June 2021, 1,800 household interviews were conducted with a representative sample of the Mexican population of voting age.
The agreement with the way of governing of President López Obrador was located at the upper limit of the average of polls published in those days: 66 percent. The interesting part has to do with what is behind that indicator. The strongest association is with the perception of whether the country’s situation has improved or worsened in the last year.
The majority of those surveyed – 58% – believed that the country’s situation had worsened or was just as bad, compared to the previous year; the remaining 42% who had improved or remained the same well. Although a minority, this last data is surprising, if one considers that the loss of income of the population. But the survey measures perceptions about the general situation of the country, not the performance of the productive sector.
The probability of agreeing with López Obrador’s way of governing was 91% among those who believed that the situation in the country had improved or was continuing just as well. This same indicator fell to 46% among those who perceived that the country’s situation had worsened. Thinking that the country has improved almost doubles the probability that you will approve the president’s job, which is quite logical.
It makes less sense, however, than most who think otherwise. The probability of disagreeing with President López Obrador is only 54% for those who believe that the situation in the country has worsened or is still just as bad.
The minority that sees the situation in the country well, despite the ravages of the pandemic and the fall of the economy, strongly supports the president. On the other hand, the majority who have a negative opinion of the state of things are divided. 54% blame the management of the Tabasco politician, while the other 46% exonerate him. He thinks that the bad state of things has other causes and continues in accordance with his way of governing.
In sum, the presidential popularity rests on two pillars: a broad, albeit minority, base of believers and a considerable segment of critics who attribute the country’s poor situation to factors other than the policies of the López Obrador government. The triumphalist speech of the mornings is addressed to the former. The latter are potential detractors, which can cause the approval of the president to cease to be a majority.
* Professor at CIDE.
Twitter: @BenitoNacif
Teacher
Private vote
Dr. Benito Nacif is a professor in the Political Studies Division of the Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE). He was Electoral Counselor of the National Electoral Institute (INE) from 2014 to 2020 and of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) from 2008 to 2014.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx