The true portrait of COVID-19 in Quebec

While the vaccine passport will no longer be required to board a plane or train in the country as of June 20, 2022 (but still required to enter the country) and the federal government is also suspending the compulsory vaccination of its civil servants (which may, however, be reimposed again), let us draw the true portrait of COVID-19 in Quebec.

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As of June 19, 2022, the cumulative data for all of Quebec is as follows: 15,462 deaths related to COVID-19 () out of a total of 1,077,256 confirmed cases of COVID-19 (), for a calculated mortality rate of 1.44%. This mortality rate is greatly overestimated, mainly (i) by including, in the numerator, deaths with, and not because of, COVID-19, apparently as numerous, and (ii) by excluding, in the denominator, cases of asymptomatic or unreported infections, several times higher than the reported symptomatic infections.

What is the true portrait of COVID-19 in Quebec?

Official figures from the Institut de la statistique du Québec and the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), consulted on June 19, 2022, show the following health reality in Quebec: (i) there is no had of since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, except for people aged 70 and over during the first wave (April-June 2020) and shortly after the imposition of the holiday lockdown/curfew or the deployment of the 3rd vaccine dose (January 2022), (ii) more than 90% of people aged 70 who died with or from COVID-19 had two or more pre-existing medical conditions (), (iii) 69.2% of the deceased were over the age of 80 (), bringing the average age of people who died with or from COVID-19 beyond their (iv) the number of deaths () compared to the number of cases () is 0.07% in people with no pre-existing conditions, 6 times higher in the presence of one pre-existing medical condition (0.4%), and 98 times higher in the presence of two or more pre-existing conditions (6 .9%), according to data last updated on May 2, 2022, and (v) between 0 and 5 people under the age of 40 (with less than one pre-existing medical condition) have died in Quebec since start of the pandemic ().

Analysis of official government data has thus made it possible to reveal two of the main risk factors for complications and death from COVID-19 fairly early on: advanced age and the number of pre-existing medical conditions, in particular obesity.

The threat of COVID-19 was very real, but was it of the magnitude that we have been told? Especially since, according to the public data available on the sites of and of , approximately 2.1% of hospitalizations were for COVID-19 between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021 in Quebec; 20,616 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 out of a total of 986,607 hospitalizations (this number was down 17.5% from 1,195,554 hospitalizations the previous year). At the worst of the crisis, COVID-19 hospitalizations peaked at 5.9% of the total.

Did the pandemic reality described above justify (i) imposing such severe and comprehensive health measures, rather than targeted ones, to circumscribe a threat that targeted a well-known category of people? (ii) not to consider, as accurately as possible, the collateral effects of restrictive health measures? (iii) to exclude physicians from the care and any assessment of the risk/benefit ratio of a medical intervention (COVID vaccination) with their patients? (iv) to override the right of individuals to consent, in a free and informed manner, to an injection that is always experimental? (v) resorting to mass vaccination of the entire population for a disease which particularly affects the very old and sick? (vi) to impose the vaccination obligation on people who are young, in good health or who are not at risk of complications from COVID-19? (vii) to impose the vaccination obligation on workers (including those in telework) under penalty of dismissal in the event of refusal? (viii) restricting the right of access to public places and hampering the freedom of movement by train or plane to people who are not “adequately” vaccinated, when injections do not prevent infection or transmission, but rather seem to facilitate infection? (ix) that a government assumes power by self-proclaiming and perpetuating a state of health emergency and certain measures beyond the emergency period? (x) not to encourage the maintenance of good health by adopting healthy lifestyle habits? (xi) not to allow, or even encourage, recourse to preventive, early or alternative treatments, as other countries have done? (xii) to muzzle professionals and academics critical of health measures, through pressure from their professional order or their Institution, under penalty of losing their right to practice or their job? (xiii) such intense, polarized and polarizing media coverage sowing fear, anxiety and division? or (xiv) to encourage denunciation, the social exclusion of a minority of unvaccinated people and the division of society?

Faced with the threat posed by COVID-19, as uncertain as it was unforeseen, initial precautionary measures were in order, although even before the pandemic reached Quebec, it was known that COVID-19 affected more especially the elderly in Italy.

The pandemic has evolved over the months, of course, leading the government to review and adapt certain measures to the health context of the moment. However, in some cases, it has imposed decisions that go against science (eg curfew) or has taken much too long to do so, such as the lifting of the latest restrictive health measures. This reveals the importance of depoliticizing decisions that infringe on individual rights and freedoms, for example, by () to the government, so that these decisions are based on science and are made more quickly.

Despite the election campaign that is looming on the horizon, and during which the political parties will probably avoid returning to this dark period in the history of Quebec, we cannot do without an examination of conscience or deep collective reflection to ensure that, next time, the deployment of measures is appropriate, proportional and adapted to the threat, and adjusted quickly if necessary. It will be necessary to avoid leaving in fear when the noses start to run, as in every autumn.

An assessment of the management of this crisis, which has revealed the limits, even the flaws, of our system and our democratic life, is essential.

We owe it to too many seniors whom we have failed to protect, as well as to those whose rights and freedoms have been violated for too long.

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