The Canadian | The top 15 in the sights, the top 10 still far away

Since the beginning of the Canadian’s reconstruction, it has been fashionable to comment on its performances as if it were the DIY work of a 6-year-old child. Beautiful features are magnified. Faults are ignored.

The Habs lose after letting a three-goal lead slip away? We remember Cole Caufield’s goal. The defense collapses and allows 45 shots? See how Arber Xhekaj plays with confidence. Sixteen defeats in overtime? What a great learning opportunity for young people…

Between adults, can we tell each other the truth?

The Canadiens’ season was like the origami elephant your little one brought home from school. A bit messy. Wait. It’s not an elephant? Is it a flower? Ah good. Sorry.

The Canadian’s season, I said, was difficult. The team finished last in their division. She had just one three-game winning streak, compared to nine three-game losing streaks. Sixteen times, she gave five or more goals in a match. It also found itself among the 10 worst teams in the National League for goals scored, goals conceded, differential, success rate in power play and efficiency in power play.

Afterwards, it is true that on this fallow land, a few plants grew. That on an individual level, there have been successes. Nick Suzuki has clearly progressed. Alongside him, Juraj Slafkovsky has also greatly improved. The young Slovakian has become a productive and threatening player. These two attackers inspire confidence in me for the next decade.

Samuel Montembeault confirmed his status as the organization’s number one goalie. Michael Matheson and Alex Newhook had the best season of their careers. Among the hopefuls, Lane Hutson and Logan Mailloux showed exciting potential. But overall, collectively, there is still a lot of work to be done before the Canadian becomes a contender for top honors.

In the end of season reports, Tuesday and Wednesday, players and managers said they wanted the club to be “in the mix” for the race for the playoffs next year. Unless the Canadian wins the lottery or acquires at least two impact forwards, that seems like a very ambitious goal to me. Impossible ? No. The Washington Capitals have just qualified despite a differential of -37. But it is a highly improbable achievement.

Don’t forget that the Canadian will pay more than 4 million of the salaries of Jeff Petry and Jake Allen, who will play elsewhere. So much money that cannot be spent on reinforcements for the second trio.

I also worry about the health of three young pillars of the team.

When he returns to the game in October, Kirby Dach will have played only two games in 18 months. He has already had surgery on his wrist, shoulder and knee, in addition to having suffered at least two concussions. That’s a lot for a 23 year old. Arber Xhekaj will have shoulder surgery for the second time in a year. He will spend the entire summer in rehabilitation. Hard on morale. Kaiden Guhle revealed that he suffered two concussions this season, just a few months apart. A delicate situation for a young defender who is tossed around game after game.

Realistically, the Canadian should find his way back to the playoffs within three years. Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes have enough prospects, young defensemen and draft picks in the bank to acquire reinforcements on offense. Or next summer. Or the next one. Or both times. This is what makes me believe that the CH can aim for top 15 of the NHL in the medium term. The last time this happened was in 2019. Claude Julien was the head coach, and COVID-19 was unknown to us*.

In this scenario, in three years, the Canadian would have a team of similar caliber to the Los Angeles Kings or the Detroit Red Wings. This is entirely respectable. But to move to the next level, that of repetitive Stanley Cup contenders, he is still missing pieces.

“We have to continue to add (players),” agreed Kent Hughes at a press conference. To win the Stanley Cup, we don’t have the roster to do it today. Everyone here is aware of this. It’s really our responsibility, Jeff (Gorton) and I. But it’s not something that can be done in 24 hours. »

Clubs that began their reconstruction before the Canadian, such as the Red Wings, the Buffalo Sabers and the Ottawa Senators, have noted in recent months the difficulty of catching up with the leading pack. The Habs’ three division rivals have repeatedly drafted early. They are all banking on a core of talented young players. The Sabres’ defensive brigade, with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Bowen Byram, is stunning. Except that it remains insufficient. Not just to compete against the elite NHL clubs. To participate in the series, quite simply.

To reach the top 15 in the medium term, and the top 10 In the long term, the Canadian will have to substantially strengthen his attack and find solutions to improve his collective game in defense.

There will be pitfalls. The further the team advances in the rankings, the further it will move away from the best prospects in the draft. So elite talent. Also, the tendency of young players to prefer long-term contracts to bridge contracts could put significant pressure on the club’s payroll. Gone are the days when rising stars like Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon were bargains until they were 25, giving their bosses leeway to speed up the rebuild.

All of this sets the table for a hot summer in Montreal. To paraphrase Kent Hughes, this will be the “most important” summer of the rebuild…until the next one.

*When the Canadian reached the Stanley Cup final in 2021, he finished the season ranked 18^e rank in the general classification.