The return of war to Europe presents the EU and its member states with a series of challenges that it will have to fight to meet. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz aptly used the German word Zeitenwende, a historic turning point, to capture the transformative moment facing Europe. Germany, perhaps more than any other member state, is experiencing a bitter internal discussion about its policy towards Russia during the last 20 years. In a recent interview, former Chancellor Angela Merkel was unwilling to accept criticism of her Russian policy, admitting only that the response to Crimea’s annexation could have been stronger and that she had failed to create a security architecture that could have prevented the war. . She was not entirely convincing.
Two aspects of Germany’s Russian policy that weaken the EU and its ability to deal with Putin are highlighted. First, the decision to phase out nuclear power in 2011 increased the appeal of cheap Russian gas. Nord Stream 2 was designed to increase Germany’s dependence on Russian gas, a huge strategic mistake, and weaken Ukraine by avoiding it. The United States, Russia’s neighbors, and countries in Central and Eastern Europe had deep misgivings about the pipeline from the start. The contract for Nord Stream 2 was signed in 2015 after the annexation of Crimea and it took Russian military reinforcement to freeze the pipeline, which is already built.
Second, Germany’s political economy, which depends on export-led growth, is at odds with its security dependency on the US and NATO. Germany’s economy and strategic policies must be brought back into alignment.
The party most likely to do this is the Green Party, which abandoned its anti-war roots before entering government. The war in Ukraine accelerated change and transformed the party’s foreign policy. Green Party Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Economy Minister Robert Habeck have constantly pressed Chancellor Scholz to do more for Ukraine, including supplying heavy weapons. Germany has made announcements but fewer actual deliveries of military support. The chancellor’s Social Democratic Party remains divided on the war, and it is painful to abandon Ostpolitik. Germany, as the largest state in the EU, appears to be following the example of its partners in Ukraine rather than leading.
The view has become entrenched that the EU’s center of gravity has shifted to the east because Eastern Central European and Baltic countries are leading the war in Ukraine. These are the frontline countries whose security is most affected by the war and Moscow’s attempt to disrupt the post-Cold War security architecture, but there will be no effective EU response without the big European states. Hence the importance of the visit this week by Chancellor Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to Kyiv to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. They were joined by Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, representing the eastern half of the continent. The visit was not a mere photo session. The leaders emphasized their support for Ukraine’s candidate status, clearly signaling to Putin that Ukraine is not in his sphere of influence, but has the right to look to the West.
The visit comes at a crucial moment in the war and when the European Council (June 23-24) addresses the issue of Ukraine’s EU membership. The military situation in the east is delicately balanced following Russia’s ground offensive in the Donbass region. Ukraine will need a continuous flow of ammunition to maintain its defensive effort and prevent further loss of territory. Although the United States is the largest arms donor, European states are expected to do more. There is no way of knowing how the war will evolve, how long it will last and when a ceasefire will be possible. For now, there is no end in sight and no possibility of a ceasefire.
hardened language
The language of Paris and Berlin has hardened following criticism that overtures were being made towards Moscow. Speaking in Romania on June 15, President Macron promised to do everything to stop Russia’s war. Ultimately, Ukraine must be the one negotiating its own future with its allies in a supporting role. Meanwhile, the war continues unabated.
Beyond the immediacy of the war, the applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to join the EU put enlargement politics back on the agenda after a long period of enlargement fatigue. The Commission has announced its favorable opinion on the granting of candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova. The European Council must endorse the opinion at its next meeting and a majority of the European Parliament must support the two countries. As the EU faces the prospect of becoming an EU of 36 in the next 20 years, the European Council should ask the presidents of the four institutions or a high-level group to review the enlargement policy and process of the EU to deal with the Zeitenwende in which we find ourselves. in.
It’s time to think fresh. President Macron in a speech on May 9 in the European Parliament proposed a European Political Community that would complement the EU and facilitate the active participation of Europe’s neighbors in an outer ring of integration. Another way of thinking about it is to dissect the current enlargement process (multiple negotiation chapters) and determine integration blocks that could be accessed in stages. This implies a multi-speed process rather than a multiple goal and the ultimate goal would still be full EU membership.
Rather than think of membership as a ladder to climb, it should be viewed as a set of building blocks that unfolds when conditions are met. One could, for example, envisage free movement rights before other parts of the Single Market, or improved market access for goods before services depending on the level of readiness. None of this is comfortable for the EU, but the war in Ukraine is a transformative moment with implications for a whole swath of EU politics.
Brigid Laffan is Emeritus Professor at the Robert Schuman Center for Advanced Study at the European University Institute in Florence.
Reference-www.irishtimes.com