Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a “protracted conflict” in Ukraine and could resort to drastic measures if the fighting does not go his way, according to Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
During a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday, Haines said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a shock to the geopolitical order, “with implications for the future that we are just beginning to understand, but will surely have.” impact”.
Although Putin has concentrated his forces in Donbass after failing in the north, the United States does not think he is happy with the eastern part of the country, Haines said.
“The next month or two of fighting will be significant as the Russians try to reinvigorate their efforts. But even if they are successful, we are not sure that the fighting in Donbas will effectively end the war,” he said. “We assess that President Putin is preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond Donbas.”
But for now, Putin’s goal is to seize control of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in Donbas and encircle Ukrainian forces from the north and south “in order to crush the most capable and best-equipped Ukrainian forces fighting to hold the line.” in the East”. Hain said.
Putin would also like to “consolidate control of the land bridge that Russia has established from Crimea to Donbas, occupy Kherson and control Crimea’s water source,” he said.
The United States also sees signs that its military wants to extend that land bridge to Transnistria, in Moldova, according to Haines.
Haines said Russia might be able to achieve “most” of those goals in the coming months, but would need to mobilize more troops to achieve the last one:
“We believe that they will not be able to extend control over a land bridge that extends to Transnistria and includes Odessa without launching some kind of mobilization. And it is increasingly unlikely that they will be able to establish control over the provinces and the buffer zone.” want in the next few weeks,” Haines said.
But Putin “probably counts on the determination of the United States and the EU to weaken as food shortages, inflation and energy prices worsen,” he added.
Economic forces are also at work in Russia, with Western sanctions having a “pretty significant” impact on Russia, according to Haines.
“Among the indicators that one might look at are, for example, the fact that … we forecast inflation of about 20% in Russia, that we expect its GDP to fall by about 10%, possibly even more, over the course of the years,” he said.
The fighting itself has also worn down Russia’s capabilities.
“Our view is that the ground combat forces have been degraded considerably. It will take them years… to rebuild that,” he said.
But degraded conventual forces could lead Putin to other means of exerting force.
“That may end up meaning that they have a greater reliance on asymmetric tools during this period,” Haines said. “So they may rely more on things like cyber, nuclear, precision, etc. And that’s obviously a change in how they exert their influence efforts.”
The discrepancy between Putin’s lofty aspirations and his degraded conventional capability could lead to “a more unpredictable and potentially scalable trajectory” and “a period of more ad hoc decision-making in Russia” in the coming months, Haines said.
This could also manifest itself at the national level.
“The current trend increases the likelihood that President Putin will resort to more drastic means, including the imposition of martial law, the reorientation of industrial production, or potentially escalating military action to free up the resources needed to achieve his goals as prolongs the conflict, or perceives that Russia is losing in Ukraine,” he said.
What could happen next?
“The most likely flashpoints for escalation in the coming weeks are increased Russian attempts to intercept Western security assistance, retaliation for Western economic sanctions, or internal regime threats. We believe Moscow continues to use nuclear rhetoric to dissuade the United States and the West from increasing lethal aid to Ukraine and to respond to public comments by US and NATO allies suggesting expanding Western objectives in the conflict,” he said.
The next step for Putin could be to launch major nuclear exercises to earn the respect of the US.
“If Putin perceives that the United States is ignoring his threats, he may try to signal to Washington the greater danger of his support for Ukraine by authorizing another major nuclear exercise involving a wide scattering of mobile intercontinental missiles, heavy bombers, strategic submarines.” Haines said.
But so far, US officials have said they don’t believe Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere.
“Otherwise, we continue to believe that President Putin would likely only authorize the use of nuclear weapons if he perceived an existential threat to the Russian state or regime,” Haines said.
Reference-abcnews.go.com