Opinion | Justin Trudeau returned to Ottawa with the same agenda. Inflation had other plans

MONTREAL – Looking at the reopening of the House of Commons last Monday, one could have been forgiven for forgetting that a federal election had taken place so recently.

In many obvious ways, the 44th Parliament looks like a clone of the old one.

It presents the same leaders, the same Spokesperson, the same party dynamics and, essentially, the same government agenda.

But appearances can be misleading. Here’s a look at some of the undercurrents that could turn the tide of Canada’s last Parliament.

Until last Tuesday, decades had passed since the word “inflation” appeared in a speech from the throne.

While the topic by no means figured prominently in the two dozen pages of the text, inflation has already appeared more prominently in federal conversation over the past week than at any other point in the six-week election campaign. .

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saw his plans for his first two terms overwhelmed by unforeseen events.

Inflation and its impact on the economy and the pockets of Canadians could still disrupt the agenda of his third term in ways as transformative as the election of Donald Trump and the pandemic.

Part of the liberals’ justification for holding snap elections was the hope of weathering a potential post-pandemic economic storm from the relatively safe harbor of a ruling majority.

By all indications, Erin O’Toole and her group are willing to bet everything that inflation turns out to be the Achilles heel of Trudeau’s minority government.

They are making a case that Liberals are missing in action on the economic front with the same enthusiasm that characterized their accusation, at the same time last year, that Canada was about to be left behind while the rest of the world vaccinated its exit. of the pandemic.

Time will tell if this latest conservative bet will pay more dividends than the vaccine offensive. The latter only made the Liberals appear to be exceeding expectations.

For now, Trudeau’s $ 10-a-day childcare policy and its potential savings for many families is the main staple in the government’s anti-inflation platform.

As the NDP was quick to point out, plans for a national child care program have replaced pharmaceutical care on the government’s social policy radar.

It’s easy to see the justification for that.

Six months after its launch, Liberals have already secured far more provincial support from across the political spectrum for their child care policy than ever for pharmaceutical care.

Among the largest provinces, only Ontario has yet to approve the plan.

During the first week of Parliament, Liberals relied on their childcare and housing agendas to hedge against the inflation front. It remains to be seen if this will continue to be the case at the time of the spring budget.

Finally, unlike the previous Parliament, this one finds the leadership of the federal parties in relative change.

Much of the post-election speculation has naturally focused on O’Toole’s future. In that sense, the return of Parliament has provided some relief to the Conservative leader.

A week free from leadership challenges is not a pattern. O’Toole’s fate unfolds on a stage larger than the House of Commons and involves players who, unlike his group, are not under his immediate surveillance.

Still, a calm leadership front has resulted in the party’s most productive week since election night.

On the liberal side, a Globe and Mail report this week that Vice Premier Chrystia Freeland is about to become the subject of a biography will surely have stirred the pot of leadership. Despite Trudeau’s assurances that he will lead the party in a fourth season, that pot is slowly heating up.

But before placing bets on whether Trudeau or O’Toole (or both) will retire before next season, one could consider the case of Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet.

Quebec will go to the polls in the fall. According to public opinion polls, the Parti Québécois will have a fight on their hands to avoid being erased from the electoral map. The once dominant sovereignist party has already been reduced to little more than a butt in the National Assembly.

Blanchet’s first political incarnation was as PQ MNA. When he became leader of the Bloc, many had left the federal party for dead. If things go as badly as polls predict for its sovereign sister party next fall, its success with the BQ could give it a clue for a second rescue mission.

Blanchet would not be the first Bloc leader to aspire and / or be courted to lead the PQ. At one point, Gilles Duceppe came to briefly submit his name for the position, and the last time the Parti Québécois obtained a ruling majority was when the Bloc’s founder, Lucien Bouchard, was its leader.