Opinion: As time runs out, progress on climate change is incremental

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Being part of the Concordia University observer delegation at COP26 in Glasgow offered completely new insights into international diplomacy. Although the 197 parties represented attended with both technical and political negotiating teams, the observers were present to maintain a high level of transparency and provide a civil society vision to the negotiation process. The daily briefings of the Canadian Network for Climate Action CAN-RAC allowed us to understand and interpret the negotiation process, which mostly took place behind closed doors.

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So what has been achieved? For the first time, a COP agreed to endlessly “phase out” coal energy, that is, the use of coal energy without carbon capture or storage. Fossil fuels were not even mentioned in the Paris agreement, while the phasing out of all fossil fuels was a big issue in Glasgow, not only in official negotiations, but also at the Justice-led People’s Summit. climate, environmental and youth groups. This is extremely important, as fossil fuels are the main cause of the climate emergency. Phasing out fossil fuel production and accelerating progress towards safer and more profitable renewable energy alternatives is a must if we are to avoid further global warming.

Among the many announcements of new initiatives at COP26, banks, other financial institutions, and a group of 25 countries pledged to end international coal financing by the end of 2022 and instead prioritize support for the transition to clean energy. In addition, 28 new members joined the world’s largest coal phase-out alliance, the so-called Powering Past Coal Alliance.

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However, we also see a large gap between the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) pledged by countries for greenhouse gas reduction and what it would take to maintain the 1.5 degree target set in Paris. The latest assessment of the United Nations climate plans says that pre-Glasgow pledges will result in a 13.7% increase in emissions by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels), by which time we must cut them in half.

Time is running out and emitters as big as India, the world’s third-largest emitter, just want to reach net zero by 2070. On the positive side, India has committed to producing 50% of its energy needs with renewables by 2030 These intermediate goals are very important, as they mean action now. A good result of COP26 is that countries must present new greenhouse gas reduction pledges by 2022, and not just in five years as specified in the Paris agreement.

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We also had Prime Minister François Legault at COP26 for a few days, and heads of delegation were invited to discuss Quebec policies directly with him. Legault spoke about the electrification of transport as an important area of ​​innovation in Quebec. Quebec has also just committed to ending hydrocarbon extraction on its territory, while Canada as a whole is reluctant to do so. However, Quebec’s CO2 emissions are still twice those of Switzerland, which is 4.7 tons per capita. And the existing hydroelectric resources, which provide clean electricity today and are a source of Quebec pride, cannot provide the remaining 60 percent of the energy needed for transportation and heating that is still fossil in Quebec. If the province really wants to get off fossil fuels, Quebec needs to implement more renewable energy resources today and encourage demand reduction through greater efficiency.

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The next decade should be a decade of action and implementation, from new transportation concepts to large-scale building modernization, new renewable energy plants, cleaner industry, and more nature-based solutions to absorb at least some of the carbon emitted. And we have to keep negotiating and increasing our emission reduction targets every year from now on.

While COP26 has only produced gradual progress, these UN negotiations remain the world’s primary mechanism to prevent catastrophic global warming.

Ursula Eicker is a professor of engineering at Concordia University and founding co-director of the university’s Next-Generation Cities Institute.