Ontario’s early Omicron epicenter may show a way to control, but not stop, the spread of the virus

Just as Kingston’s early experiences with Omicron alerted Ontario to what a wave driven by this variant would look like, the director of Ontario’s COVID-19 Scientific Advisory Board now points to the city as an example to follow when it comes to controlling, but not overriding – its spread.

There is no indication that Omicron cases are declining in the Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington public health region, with another record of active cases on Thursday.

But the virus’s rate of spread in the Omicron-hit region appears to be stabilizing, and one expert says that’s what we should be aiming for now.

Between December 2 and 19, COVID-19 cases in Kingston increased sharply by 520 cases per 100,000 residents. Since then, cases per 100,000 have risen and fallen by no more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents.

Peter Jüni, Scientific Director of the Scientific Advisory Board, is hopeful that Kingston is flattening the Omicron curve and that that may mean other jurisdictions may as well.

“I think this is a real stabilization that is based on the behavior of people,” he said. “Stabilization of cases to a high level is within reach.”

That’s what’s most important to many as Ontario heads into a new year with record COVID-19 case counts as well as an increase in virus-related deaths and hospitalizations.

Public health officials in Ontario reported 18,445 new cases Saturday, noting that the number was an underestimate due to changes in test availability.

The figure surpasses Friday’s record of 16,713 new diagnoses. Twelve deaths from COVID-19 were also recorded on Saturday.

Jüni said there are many reasons to think differently about our current Omicron-driven wave than about previous pandemic waves. In general, he is encouraged by the data showing that people who receive Omicron are less likely to end up in the hospital or ICU, and this is especially true for vaccinated people.

A milder form of COVID-19 that infects much of the population may even increase the level of community immunity in Ontario in the long term.

“Once we’re done with this one, things will get easier because most of us will have had some kind of immunity,” Jüni said.

But, even with milder disease, the highly communicable Omicron variant could still overwhelm the healthcare system.

“It’s a numbers game,” he said. “If you have a quarter of the risk of ending up in the ICU, you only need four times the number of cases” before the hospital system is as full as it was during the Delta wave.

At the same time, Jüni said that trying to suppress Omicron’s case numbers would be futile.

“It would be irrational to try to suppress this wave almost to zero, because the moment we ease (the restrictions), the cases would just increase again,” he said.

So, he said, the goal should be to aim to see the spread like Kingston. That means recognizing that people will pass the virus on to each other while avoiding the worst levels of exponential growth.

He points to the fact that the Kingston region appears to have experienced a sharp drop in contacts as a potential role model.

Mobility data, measures of how many people move in the community, which epidemiologists have used as an indicator of how much contact people have, show that the Kingston region substantially reduced its contacts starting in mid-December. That means fewer trips to the gym, restaurants, and other people’s homes.

Ontario’s overall pattern also shows a drop in mobility, but it started later, around December 20.

The reduction in contacts is likely due to a combination of factors, including cancellation of in-person exams for college students and public health rules that impose capacity limits on social and public settings in that region.

Ontario has also imposed a 10-person limit on private social gatherings and has said that anyone with COVID-19 symptoms such as fever or chills should isolate themselves (five days for vaccinated people and 10 days for unvaccinated people).

Before the Omicron wave, Kingston was widely considered a leader in keeping COVID-19 at bay. Dr. Kieran Moore was the region’s medical health officer before being promoted to Ontario’s top medical officer.