Donald Trump scored his first win of the 2022 primary season with JD Vance emerging from a fight of candidates from Ohio for the United States Senate. There is no question that Vance would return to the speaking circuit without Trump’s endorsement. But Trump’s success comes with significant qualifications.
Vance was fighting back to Trump’s endorsement. The last poll before Trump’s pronouncement, Vance had just 11 percent, behind Mike Gibbons (22 percent) and Josh Mandel (20 percent). After the endorsement, Vance jumped to second place in the April 14 Trafalgar poll with 23 percent to Mandel’s 28 percent. Vance continued to slowly win over voters, finishing with 26 percent in the latest pre-primary poll. On Election Day, Vance picked up most of the remaining undecideds, finishing with 32.2 percent, beating Mandel (23.9 percent) and Matt Dolan (23.3 percent).
On the positive side of Trump, he got a win and made headlines. But that victory is tempered by the fact that Vance got less than a third of the vote in a packed field. Considering that Vance was likely to pick up at least a handful of undecideds, Trump’s endorsement appears to have been worth about 20 points.
From the pre-passage poll, 28 percent were undecided. By Election Day, Mandel gained 4 points and Dolan picked up 16-plus points, while Mike Gibbons (down 10.4 points) and Jane Timken (down 3.1 points) lost ground. Vance’s victory essentially came from grabbing about 70 percent of the undecided. Trump’s endorsement didn’t take anything away from Mandel or Dolan, it just put a ceiling on them.
Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial primary, Republican incumbent Governor Mike DeWine, who has a barely concealed hatred for Trump (and it’s mutual), scored a 20+ point primary victory over ultra-Trumper Jim Renacci. DeWine stayed under 50 percent, but using the same “a win is a win” calculus as Trump, he was a big winner, and more so than Vance.
As in 2016, Trump has more than a little luck. The Republican primary calendar is favorable to him. Among the top primary states of Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Trump has a big shot with Ohio, his best state of the pack in 2020, in first place. Meanwhile, the worst state for Trump, Georgia, comes in last. Trump has a chance to build momentum in Ohio for later primaries.
The next two tests for Trump are more uncertain. In The North Carolina United States Senate Primary, Trump favorite Ted Budd managed to lead former Gov. Pat McCrory by 10 points in the April 10 SurveyUSA poll (which is a bit dated). However, Budd has yet to poll above 38 percent.
Pennsylvania is not so good for Trump. His endorsement of celebrity TV star Dr. Oz has propelled Oz into the lead among a scrum of candidates, but the gain hasn’t been nearly as dramatic as Vance’s improvement at Ohio. Before Trump’s endorsement, the free beacon poll had hedge fund manager David McCormick in the lead at 25 percent to 19 percent for Oz, and Fox News had McCormick at 24 percent to 15 percent.
In the wake of Trump’s endorsement, the Trafalgar poll puts Oz ahead 23 percent to 20 percent for McCormick, giving Oz a Trump boost of at most 8 points. Worse yet, Oz still trails his performance in February’s Trafalgar poll by 4 points. It may take time for the Trump effect to set in and for Ohio to help. But the barely noticeable boost for Oz is a bad sign. Note: I did not cite the Emerson survey or the Franklin & Marshall College survey as neither had a sample size greater than the minimum required for any validity (600).
Trump could still sweep key Senate races. only the Governor of Georgia the race seems to be a problem, with the incumbent governor and Trump nightmare Brian Kemp moved up 16 points over Trump-backed David Perdue. And this putative scorecard shows a major strength that Trump has: The non-Trump candidates are a fractured lot with no major opposition. Just like in 2016, opponents of Trump (or Trump candidates) are slicing away Republican independent voters.
Vance won with a mere 32 percent. Oz could win with a similar total. Ted Budd appears to be in better shape to get to 50 percent, but he’s not quite there yet. In the only one-on-one race, in Georgia, the unendorsed candidate is far ahead. Trump benefited in 2016 from multiple candidates strong enough to stay but not strong enough to win.
In a party where opposition to Trump is hesitant, temporizing and uncertain, Trump can maintain control simply by being aggressive and self-focused.
But that control can’t mask the fact that Republican voters aren’t going to automatically follow Trump wherever he goes. When you get past the opinion polls and get to what counts, the voting polls, loyal Trumpists look like perhaps 20 percent of Republican voters.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is a co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a regulatory and public affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former political campaign consultant from Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.
Reference-thehill.com