The beginning of the presidential periods in Mexico and the United States is usually presented as an opportunity to relaunch the bilateral relationship, start new projects and give continuity to others that have a longer-term maturation period.
In recent times, the electoral campaigns in Mexico and the United States have incorporated positions regarding the bilateral relationship. Some issues are presented as something to which one should contribute: border management, regional competitiveness and economic recovery, trade and tourism, among others. However, there are other issues where there are indications that contribute to the worsening of the differences between our countries; for example, migration, gun control and other foreign policy issues.
Of course, each candidate in each country will structure their government platform as they see fit, and citizens will judge which is the best. But it is essential that, in such a transcendental issue as the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States, there is a broad and proactive discussion, which helps citizens better understand what is at stake depending on the candidate chosen.
In this spirit, the Center for United States-Mexico Studies at the University of California at San Diego has brought together academics, opinion leaders, businessmen, legislators and other relevant actors from both countries to discuss, in a constructive environment, what should be the priorities that both countries should focus on.
On June 1 and 2, under the auspices of the Center and the leadership of Dr. Rafael Fernández de Castro, the “US-Mexico 2025” dialogue was held. The objective was to talk about the actions that can be achieved during the remaining time of the administrations of Presidents Lopez Obrador and Biden, and what issues can, from now on, be highlighted as priorities for the start of the following presidential terms: October 2024 in Mexico and January 2025 in the United States.
From my perspective, listening to the discussions of the various panels, one of the issues that most caught my attention was the feeling of fragility that seems to exist in the bilateral relationship. There seems to be no doubt that recent events – the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, the rhetorical escalation between certain opinion groups in both countries, global geopolitical changes, etc. – have tested the strength of the bilateral relationship.
Carrying this to the topics that this column regularly addresses, it was also clear to me how traumatic it was for the attendees to remember how in recent years the economic and commercial relationship was quite close to collapsing, as well as the enormous efforts and sacrifices that had been made what to do to avoid it.
For this reason, it is natural that among businessmen, academics and other relevant actors there is a feeling of urgency to avoid that, due to the elections in both countries, and due to the review process of the agreement contained in the T-MEC itself (Article 34.7), the atmosphere of attacks and harassment against regional trade integration that was experienced a few years ago is repeated.
To avoid the above, three ideas that were discussed in San Diego and that I believe should be priorities are:
- Build analysis models and statistics that demonstrate the positive effects of the T-MEC, as well as document the beneficial changes that the treaty has achieved in the new areas that were incorporated, such as labor rights, environmental protection and trade digital
- Support the authorities to organize a constructive review process of the T-MEC in 2026
- Require unrestricted compliance with all the provisions of the T-MEC, in the three countries.
Of course, these ideas should be a priority for the three T-MEC countries, but we must not forget that Mexico will be the country that will be evaluated more strictly in this process, since before various actors in Washington our country is the one that it “took advantage” of the conditions of the previous NAFTA.
For this reason, it is urgent that Mexican businessmen, officials, unions, and academics begin to think now about the T-MEC review process, and how to reinforce the message that Mexico is a reliable trade partner, that it fulfills its obligations and that is critical to the economic future of North America.
*The author is an academic from the Universidad Panamericana; Prior to that, he had a twenty-year career in the federal government dealing with international trade negotiations.