Manitoba COVID-19 Case Biased, Test Figures Still Worth Watching: Epidemiologists – Winnipeg | The Canadian News

Manitoba health officials have warned that some recent COVID-19 numbers are likely skewed by testing delays and changes in the way testing is done, but epidemiologists say that doesn’t mean we should ignore the ones. data.

Last week, Manitoba’s director of public health, Dr. Brent Roussin, said the daily record case counts were likely an understatement caused by a testing delay that he said was over 10,000 tests at the time.

He also said that the positivity rates of the five-day test may be skewed by those who test positive using a rapid test rather than getting a more accurate PCR test at provincial test sites.

Dr. Nazeem Muhajarine, an epidemiologist and professor at the University of Saskatchewan, says that while it would obviously be better to have more accurate data, it is still important to keep an eye on our daily case count.

Even if they are an undercount, he says comparing them to ICU and hospitalization rates in other jurisdictions can give us an idea of ​​what to expect locally.

“That is our base, that is our source, that is our base that will produce more serious cases, hospitalizations, ICU beds, etc.,” he said of the new daily case numbers.

From what he’s been seeing with the Omicron-related surges in other jurisdictions, Muhajarine says that about one percent of our active cases will likely require hospitalization.

“When you look at the exponential growth of something that can lead to hospitalizations and deaths, you expect to see a large number, not a small number,” he said.

“That is why you know that we must be vigilant, you know, to hospitalizations in other provinces, etc.”

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Data published in Manitoba’s online COVID-19 dashboard Monday shows that there are currently 15,318 active cases in the province, up from 9,924 reported on Friday.

Of those, 1,721 new cases were reported on Monday and hospitalizations increased from 192 on Friday to 228 on Monday. There were 32 patients in the ICU as a result of COVID-19 on Monday, two more than the numbers reported on Friday.

Meanwhile, Manitoba’s five-day test positivity rate also continues to set records, reaching 37.9 percent as of Monday, according to the province’s website.

University of Manitoba virologist Dr. Jason Kindrachuk said that even with skewed data, it’s clear that Omicron is “essentially everywhere in this province.”

Ultimately, Kindrachuk says there is no government-provided health data that is not worth looking at right now.

“Yes, hospitalization is important, the impact of the ICU is important; we must continue to focus on that, but we must also appreciate that other cases will also have an impact, “he said.

“I think we want to keep seeing those numbers. Is it necessarily indicative of where we are now? Maybe not, but it gives us at least some additional data and perspective to know what the situation is. “

– with files from Marney Blunt

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