London Playbook: Jet lag — Strike oil — Bercow’s final disgrace

On the ground: Russian forces shelled humanitarian routes and breached their own ceasefire agreements for the third successive day on Tuesday, the U.K.’s ministry of defense said in a statement overnight. The MoD said it was particularly concerned about civilian escape routes being disrupted in the cities of Mariupol and Sumy. The U.N.’s refugee chief said the number fleeing Ukraine had now reached 2 million.

Mariupol disaster: The Associated Press has a hard to read piece from the scene in besieged Mariupol, where a humanitarian crisis is unfolding for its 430,000 residents in desperate need of food, water and medicine. “Corpses lie in the streets of Mariupol. Hungry people break into stores in search of food and melt snow for water. Thousands huddle in basements, trembling at the sound of Russian shells pounding this strategic port city. ‘Why shouldn’t I cry?’ Goma Janna demanded as she wept by the light of an oil lamp below ground, surrounded by women and children. ‘I want my home, I want my job. I’m so sad about people and about the city, the children.’” POLITICO publishes the piece in full here. HuffPost’s Alex Rogers has an interview with Kosovan President Vjosa Osmani accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying to commit genocide.

Intel update: CIA Director William Burns told the U.S. House Intelligence Committee on Tuesday: “I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now. He’s likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties.” Putin has “been stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years,” Burns said, “in which his own circle of advisers is narrower and narrower.” U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines agreed Putin “is unlikely to be deterred … and instead may escalate — essentially doubling down.” Putin also “probably still remains confident that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine,” the U.S. intelligence community believes. My POLITICO colleagues Quint Forgey and Alex Ward have their full comments.

We will fight them in the streets: Much of the British coverage this morning focuses on Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s historic address to the Commons Tuesday afternoon, in which the heroic Ukrainian leader evoked Winston Churchill: “I remind you of the words that the United Kingdom has already heard because they are important again. We will not give up, and we will not lose. We will fight until the end at sea and in the air. We will continue fighting for our land, whatever the cost. We will fight in the forests, in the fields, on the shores and in the streets. We will fight on the banks of our rivers, like the Dnieper. We are looking for help from civilized countries, and we are thankful for this help. I am very grateful to you, Boris. Please increase the pressure of sanctions against Russia and please recognize that country as a terrorist state. Please ensure that our Ukrainian skies are safe. Please make sure that you do what needs to be done and what is required by the greatness of your country. I wish my best to Ukraine and to the United Kingdom.” Zelenskyy’s words are in Hansard here.

In pictures: Worth having a look at the photos of a packed Commons full of headset wearing MPs from Jess Taylor, Tracey Crouch and Tom Tugendhat.

DRIVING THE DAY

STRIKE OIL: Britain and the U.S. hit Russia with probably their most damaging economic measures yet on Tuesday as both countries committed to banning Russian oil. U.K. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said the government would phase out all Russian oil imports, which make up 8 percent of British demand, by the end of the year. Kwarteng also said he would end Britain’s use of Russian gas. Top POLITICO story-getter Emilio Casalicchio was first with the agenda-setting scoop Tuesday afternoon. The government’s announcement was coordinated with Joe Biden’s statement that he would ban all Russian energy imports, as the U.S. president vowed: “We will not be part of subsidizing Putin’s war.” Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs got that one. The EU meanwhile announced a slower plan to wean itself off Russian energy, saying it would reduce its dependence on Russian gas imports by two-thirds this year, and aim to stop using any by the end of the decade. Russia supplies about 40 percent of the bloc’s total gas consumption.

Oily analysis: The British calculation on banning Russian oil imports is that Moscow needs the cash more than the U.K. needs the oil, Emilio writes. However, things could get dicey if Russia cuts off its gas supplies in response. Energy policy professor Jim Watson said that as oil is a more global market it is “easier to see where extra supplies might come from,” while it would be “much more challenging” to replace anything lost if Russia turns off the gas taps.

Russian economy tanking: Oil makes up 44 percent of all Russian exports and 17 percent of its federal government revenue through taxation, so this is a case of hitting them where it hurts, a U.K. government source said. There are increasing signs that Russia’s economy is buckling under the pressure of international sanctions. The Fitch ratings agency last night cut Russia’s rating further into junk territory and said a bond default was “imminent,” Reuters reports. Russia’s stock market will remain closed on Wednesday, although its currency market will open, the WSJ says. The ruble has lost 40 percent of its value against the dollar this year. Biden made the point on Tuesday that “one ruble is now worth less than one American penny” as the Russian economy “craters.” Shell is also to divest from all Russian oil and gas. If that wasn’t enough, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Coca Cola and Pepsi all suspended their Russian operations yesterday. The Guardian has that story.

4K resolution: Western leaders have begun rolling the pitch for tougher times to come in their own economies as the war exacerbates the cost of living crisis. Money Saving Expert Martin Lewis said yesterday that his “heart sank” following a phone-in on ITV’s This Morning: “So many people understandably unable to process the scale of the increases and unable to meet the price. It is depressing and dangerous.” The Mail’s Helena Kelly reports that the average U.K. energy bill could hit an unbelievable £4,000 by the end of this year — and Playbook is told similar by industry insiders. There are increasing suggestions in Tory circles that Chancellor Rishi Sunak will have to produce a COVID-level intervention in the market to save Britons from disaster. Former Minister Robert Jenrick told BBC Newsnight: “We could be looking at an energy crisis unrivalled since the 1970s … it looks as if this is going to be the most difficult economic year that we’ve seen in my lifetime.”

No sign yet … of Downing Street’s promised “energy supply strategy.” The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith hears it’s expected the week after next. No pressure, but government insiders are starting to fear the looming energy crisis is so bad that what ministers come up with might decide Boris Johnson’s fate at the next election.

Is the answer fracking? Speak to Tory backbenchers and they’ll tell you Johnson needs to end his opposition to fracking and use Britain’s untapped shale gas reserves to ease the crisis. Sure enough, Riley-Smith says the PM is opening the door to a return to fracking in the U.K. to improve its energy independence. The Sun’s Harry Cole and Natasha Clark report fracking sites in Lancashire that had been due to be concreted over next week will now be “used for further research” instead, in a move former Brexit minister and energy rebel David Frost welcomed. It has to be said there is an extent to which considerations on fracking are political. Environmental considerations aside, energy industry experts like ex-Centrica boss Iain Conn have warned it would not be “possible to drill enough wells to be able to make a material difference to the UK’s supplies.” The Times’ Oli Wright says ministers are simultaneously looking at relaxing restrictions on new onshore wind farms to boost renewable projects.

AIR POWER: The government’s attention this morning is on the activities of Russian aircraft in Britain. In the last few minutes, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has announced new powers to detain Russian aircraft and remove aircraft belonging to sanctioned individuals and entities from the U.K. register. Truss is also banning the export of aviation and space-related goods and technology, including technical assistance. It comes after Transport Secretary Grant Shapps last night announced he is making it a criminal offense for any Russian aircraft to enter U.K. airspace, ensuring the government can detain any jets that enter. “We will suffocate Putin’s cronies’ ability to continue living as normal while thousands of innocent people die,” Shapps said. He’s on the morning broadcast round.

Impounded: The U.K. has been criticized for not joining the EU in seizing Russian oligarchs’ jets, and the following story goes some way to explaining today’s Shapps-Truss action. Playbook is told that last Friday, a private jet connected to Russian billionaire Eugene Shvidler — an ally of Putin crony Roman Abramovich — landed at Farnborough airport. Ownership of the jet was not immediately apparent — it is often obscured by shell companies and registrations in third countries — so it wasn’t clear if the government had the ability to detain the aircraft under rules banning Russian residents’ jets from flying over Britain. Shapps was however able to issue a “Restriction of Flying Order” that applied to this specific type of jet, in order to prevent it from leaving while officials investigated whether it met the rules. The jet is registered in Luxembourg, apparently to a company called Global Jet Luxembourg, and the complications have arisen because of challenges determining Shvidler’s residency and determining the true owner of the jet, a government insider said. Following advice from Attorney General Suella Braverman, the aircraft will not be allowed to depart today while investigations continue. The Telegraph also has the story.

Oligarch latest: The Mirror’s Dan Bloom has a good piece on six loopholes he reckons oligarchs can exploit in the government’s Economic Crime Bill. In worse news for the jet setters, my POLITICO colleague Ryan Heath reports Davos is freezing them out. However will they cope.

REFUGEE DEBACLE: Home Secretary Priti Patel continues to come in for criticism over her Ukrainian refugee policy, including from her own Cabinet colleagues. Sky’s Joe Pike reports Patel faced pressure at Tuesday’s meeting of the Cabinet: “Priti talked about everything the Home Office was doing but it quickly became clear she was just going round in circles,” said a Cabinet source. “Then a series of ministers really drilled down into the detail about what we are doing to get these refugees across — Grant Shapps especially. She squirmed and hated it.” Matt Dathan and Henry Zeffman have the same briefing in the Times, with a Cabinet minister also telling them there is “consternation” in government at the “inept and bureaucratic” handling: “Everyone is working their knuckles to the bone and yet we see a bureaucratic and inept response from the Home Office. It is very frustrating.”

Grip needed: Tory MP Alec Shelbrooke made a furious Commons intervention telling the Home Office to “get a grip” — Guido has the video. It is hard to see Johnson’s decision to appoint former Tory MP Richard Harrington to the Lords so he can become the new minister for refugees as anything other than an indictment of the Home Office’s handling of the crisis.

Riot warning: The BBC reported from Britain’s visa application centre at Rzeszów in Poland, running an interview with 79-year-old refugee and professor Antonina Kolodii, who warned there could be riots. “It’s really quite desperate. There is no system in place, it’s quite clear that this place is understaffed, quite severely, that there is absolutely no way that people who work here can process so many applications. So it’s not working. People are very frustrated, very angry. They ran out of patience. If this continues for much longer, it does feel like there will be riots.”

How the civil service works: A Whitehall official yesterday texted Playbook their view of what was going wrong: “All the clever people end up in the Cabinet Office, all the ****s end up in the Foreign Office and all the brain dead morons end up in the Home Office.” No comment from Playbook on that one.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Northern Ireland questions followed by PMQs at noon … Tory MP James Daly then has a ten minute rule bill on microchipped pets … and then it’s estimates day, where MPs will rubber stamp motions allocating public money across government departments. There will be debates on spending in schools and education led by education committee Chairman Robert Halfon, and one on defense spending led by Labour’s John Spellar.

BERCOW’S FINAL DISGRACE: Former Commons Speaker John Bercow, who enjoyed the protection of a political establishment that ignored victims and cynically turned a self-serving blind eye to the well-known truth about his behavior, will go down in history as a bully and a liar after an independent report upheld 21 bullying complaints against him. POLITICO’s Esther Webber has the story on how the report found Bercow repeatedly shouted and swore at the complainants, belittling them in front of others and becoming so angry that he spat, as well as subjecting them to “obscene” outbursts, labeling one of his staff “f**king stupid” and repeatedly saying he did not give a “flying f**k” about aspects of their work. On one occasion he is alleged to have smashed a mobile phone down on a desk so hard that it burst into pieces that hit one of his colleagues — a complaint the inquiry upheld. Playbook would republish the grim tweets of the many senior politicians who lauded Bercow on his retirement despite knowing full well the claims against him from multiple victims, but everyone knows who they are.

Labour trouble: Bercow, a Labour member, was suspended by the party “pending an investigation.” Someone should tell them that one of the most damning parliamentary standards investigations in history came out yesterday.

And it gets worse: Unbelievably, the system is set to change from next month so that people in parliament cannot raise complaints about incidents of alleged bullying which occurred more than a year ago. Under these terms, the Bercow inquiry obviously would not have been possible since it related to incidents between 2009 and 2014. Trade unions and Commons staff told Esther Webber the rule change needed to be revisited, with the GMB’s Jenny Symmons pointing out: “It can take victims differing lengths of time to process events especially when complaining about people in positions of power.” Robert Rogers, one of the complainants in the Bercow case, said that under the current system he’d been “very glad that there was the opportunity to deal with this particular pattern and lengthy chapter of serious misbehavior.”

In detail: My POLITICO colleague Seb Whale wrote the book on Bercow and has this piece on the saga out this morning. A former colleague of Bercow tells Seb: “He is a practiced sh*t. He is really, really good at being unpleasant. It is quite an odd skill to have in life, and Bercow has it in abundance.”

ONLINE SAFETY WARM-UP: The biggest social media platforms will face a new legal duty to prevent paid-for fraudulent adverts appearing on their services in the Online Safety Bill, the U.K. government has confirmed. POLITICO reported in December this was pretty much a done deal behind closed doors as officials redraw the proposed law before it goes before MPs this spring. More on the confirmed move, and the launch of a wider consultation on online advertising, from POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson for Tech and Financial Services Pros here. 

Last-ditch lobbying: Annabelle hears the new draft of the law could be published as early as next week. Ahead of its publication a diverse coalition of lobbyists and campaigners have teamed up to warn Nadine Dorries the bill needs to look pretty different when it returns. Unlikely bedfellows ranging from Big Brother Watch and the Index on Censorship to the NSPCC and Reset have set out “the most important necessary changes” they want to see in a letter to the U.K. culture secretary sent late last night. The groups say the proposed legislation won’t tackle the most business models and systems which monetize, amplify and target users with discrimination, hate and disinformation. They also warn against weakening data protection laws. The full letter is here.

TORY FRIENDS OF UKRAINE: Former Culture Secretary John Whittingdale and foreign affairs committee Chair Tom Tugendhat have invited other Tories to join the new Conservative Friends of Ukraine grouping, which needs at least 100 members to qualify for formal party affiliation. “We’re trying to show the Ukrainian people the support they enjoy from across our party — not just in parliament but around the country,” Tugendhat told Playbook’s colleague Cristina Gallardo. The move has the support of CCHQ and party Chairman Oliver Dowden.

COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: The transport committee will quiz West Midlands Mayor Andy Street on the Integrated Rail Plan (9 a.m.) … Food writer and campaigner Jack Monroe will be giving evidence at the work and pensions committee’s inquiry into the rising cost of living (9.15 a.m.) … Welsh FM Mark Drakeford is at the Welsh affairs committee for a broad ranging session (noon) … The public accounts committee will look at value for money on government contracts with Treasury officials (1.30 p.m.) … Treasury Minister Helen Whately will give evidence on her department’s net zero review at the environmental audit committee (2.15 p.m.) … and the Treasury committee will hear from the former Efficiency Minister Theodore Agnew on fraud in COVID loan schemes, fresh from his dramatic resignation at the dispatch box on that very issue (2.15 p.m.).

Today in Manchester: Tech Minister Chris Philp’s will be at the Manchester Digital City Festival today where he will hail 2022 as a landmark year for new rules on digital competition and data post-Brexit. “Now that we are out of the EU, we will ensure the U.K. seizes a competitive advantage by adopting regulation that is light touch and promotes innovation, growth and competition,” he will say.

ANTI-NET ZERO LOBBY LATEST: Climate news website DeSmog has revealed that Tory MP Steve Baker, one of the government’s most vocal critics on the net zero target, took £5,000 from the chair of a climate science denial group. Baker insists his Net Zero Scrutiny Group (NZSG) in parliament accepts climate science and is only concerned about the cost and efficacy of the U.K.’s 2050 net zero target. But the register of interests shows that Baker received £5,000 from Neil Record, chairman of the Global Warming Policy Forum, whose founder and board member Nigel Lawson recently said “global warming is not a problem.”

LORDS: Sits from 3 p.m. with questions on a national green skills strategy, trade talks with India, Greenland and Israel and the Horizon Europe program … and then the main business will be the final day of the Health and Care Bill’s report stage.

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MEDIA ROUND

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps broadcast round: Sky News (7.05 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.20 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … ITV GMB (8.30 a.m.).

Also on the Today program: David Beasley, executive director of the U.N. World Food Program (7.15 a.m.) … Children’s Commissioner Rachel de Souza (7.20 a.m.) … Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper (7.30 a.m.) … Former Commons Clerk Robert Rogers (aka Lord Lisvane) (8.30 a.m.) … Radosław Sikorski, former Polish foreign minister (8.40 a.m.).

Also on Good Morning Britain (ITV): Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper (6.40 a.m.).

Also on Kay Burley at Breakfast (Sky News): Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper (8.05 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Former Chief of the General Staff Richard Dannatt (7.05 a.m.) … Former Commons Clerk Robert Rogers (aka Lord Lisvane) (7.20 a.m.) … Former NHS England Chairman Malcolm Grant (7.40 a.m.) … Tory MP Andrea Leadsom (8.35 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper (7.40 a.m.) … Defense committee Chairman Tobias Ellwood (8 a.m.) … Former U.S. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster (8.05 a.m.) … Ukrainian politician Inna Sovsun (8.30 a.m.) … Former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson (9.10 a.m.).

Julia Hartley-Brewer breakfast show (talkRADIO): FDA General Secretary Dave Penman (7.20 a.m.) … Tory MP Liam Fox (8.05 a.m.) … Public accounts committee Chairwoman Meg Hillier (9.20 a.m.) … Former Commons Clerk Robert Rogers (Lord Lisvane) (9.33 a.m.).

Politics Live (BBC Two 11.15 a.m.): Labour MP Emma Hardy … Tory MP Rehman Chishti … The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar … ConHome’s Mark Wallace … Small Business Minister Paul Scully … Shadow Environment Secretary Jim McMahon.

The Briefing with Gloria De Piero (GB News 11.50 a.m.): Shadow Armed Forces Minister Stephen Kinnock … Tory MP Alec Shelbrooke.

Tonight with Andrew Marr (LBC 6 p.m.): Armed Forces Minister James Heappey.

Question Time (BBC One 8 p.m.): Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi … Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy … Ukrainian Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko …. Former Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt … War Studies professor Lawrence Freedman.

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): Tory MP Alicia Kearns … Women’s Equality Party leader Mandu Reid … Journalist Michael Crick … Broadcaster Afua Adom.

Peston (ITV 10.35 p.m.): Tory MP Johnny Mercer and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker.

Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire and Mail’s Andrew Pierce.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)

Daily Express: We’ll fight in forests, fields and on shores.

Daily Mail: We will fight until the end.

Daily Mirror: We will never surrender.

Daily Star: Biggest fight of my life — Klitschko exclusive.

Financial Times: U.S. bans Russian oil as shelling forces Ukraine to halt fresh evacuation bid.

HuffPost UK: Zelenskyy — ‘We will fight to the end.’

i: ‘We will fight in the forests and on the streets.’

Metro: Hear hear hero.

POLITICO UK: We will told you so! How the West didn’t listen to the countries that know Russia best.

PoliticsHome: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy calls on U.K. to recognize Russia as a ‘terrorist state’ in landmark address to parliament.

The Daily Telegraph: Poland offers fighter jets for Ukraine.

The Guardian: ‘Blow to Putin’ — Britain and U.S. ban Russian oil.

The Independent: ‘We will fight in the forests, in the fields, on the shores, in the streets.’

The Sun: Queen’s guard AWOL to fight Vlad.

The Times: Ukraine to get NATO jets.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: ☁️☁️☁️ Light cloud and breezy. Highs of 12C.

BIRTHDAYS: Shadow Disabled People Minister Vicky Foxcroft … Perth and North Perthshire MP Pete Wishart … Crossbench peer Simon McDonald … Ofcom chief Melanie Dawes … Tory peer David Willetts … Crossbench peer Kishwer Falkner … The Sydney Morning Herald’s Latika Bourke … The Sun’s Editor-in-Chief Victoria Newton … Former Israeli Ambassador Mark Regev … Former Deputy Chief of Defense Staff Roger Austin … and UKIP leader Neil Hamilton.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.

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