Jarvis: We need to be clear about what is needed and why

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What type of COVID-19 test do I need? When I need it?

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The US border has been open for a month and no one understands the rules for crossing.

Now, no one understands the new public health restrictions in Windsor and Essex counties. Why are indoor socials limited to 10 people and bars and restaurants are limited to 50 percent of their capacity, but there are no limits for Spitfires concerts and games?

This is a problem.

If people don’t understand the rules or don’t think they’re relevant, they’re less likely to follow them. They need to know what they are being asked to do and why they are being asked to do it.

And they need to know what is at stake.

That’s why the city is dispatching communication staff to the Windsor Essex County Health Unit starting Monday to help get their message across.

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“We have identified the need to improve our joint communications with the public regarding the need for continued surveillance, compliance with current restrictions and increased encouragement for those who remain unvaccinated,” Mayor Drew Dilkens said Friday.

“Speaking clearly and directly to the public is now required to encourage compliance with updated WECHU public health recommendations,” he said.

That is what is at stake.

We are reporting around 100 new COVID-19 infections a day. Our latest weekly case rate is 114.5 per 100,000 residents, the third highest in Ontario, almost three times the provincial rate.

On Friday there were 572 active cases and 30 people in hospitals. More than 4,900 high-risk contacts, more than one percent of the population, were isolated.

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Six people died this week.

The “dramatic increase,” as Windsor Essex County Health Unit Executive Director Nicole Dupuis said Thursday, occurs across all local municipalities.

Roughly 760 school cohorts, 15,000 students, have been laid off since September due to exposure to COVID-19, “disrupting their lives and their education,” as Dupuis put it.

Thirty-two cohorts, nearly 1,000 students, were laid off on Wednesday alone.

Many of these cases originate outside of schools, Dupuis said.

It is the third year that children’s education has been interrupted and we know that this is damaging their learning and mental health.

“The number one goal is to keep schools open for instruction,” Dr. Shanker Nesathurai, Acting Medical Health Officer, said Thursday.

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Hospitals, paramedics and public health officials in the region also warned last week of “intensifying capacity pressures throughout the acute care system.”

And Ontario’s science board warned this week that “ICUs have been under unprecedented pressure and will have trouble responding to another surge in patients.”

The intensive care staff is exhausted and trying to care for urgent patients who do not have COVID-19.

Admissions to the ICU are projected to reach between 250 and 400 by next month. The capacity is 300. Then the hospitals have to start canceling the surgeries again.

But the most terrible shock, the tragedy, as Nesathurai said Thursday, is preventable death. Of the 42 people who died here between August and earlier this week, 30 were not vaccinated. Some were perfectly healthy. They just weren’t vaccinated.

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The other 12 were vaccinated, but most had significant comorbidities that compromised their immune systems. Still, as Nesathurai said, people with serious or chronic illnesses can live a long time. Unless they contract COVID-19.

“We have people who are dying who do not need to die, and it is within our reach as a community to try to protect their health,” he said.

And now comes Omicron.

It had spread to 57 countries by Wednesday, according to the World Health Organization. The “highly communicable” variant already accounts for 10 percent of new infections in Ontario and could completely replace Delta in January, Ontario Medical Director of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said Friday. He’s already in London, two hours from here. It’s probably here already.

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Omicron is expected to pass through the unvaccinated population.

But it can also partially evade vaccines. Two doses of an mRNA vaccine provide less protection against Omicron. A third chance will likely be needed, Pfizer said Wednesday.

Ontario is already reviewing the definition of fully vaccinated, Moore said. It could change from two doses to three.

That would affect vaccine mandates, which are based on two injections. That, in turn, could also affect public health rules like capacity limits, which are based in part on vaccination.

We do not yet know if Omicron is more lethal, but as the WHO also said, “even if the severity is equal to or potentially even less than for the Delta variant, hospitalizations are expected to increase if more people become infected.”

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So a lot is happening and the stakes are high.

That is why we need clarity.

When it’s unclear, it has to backtrack, like Ontario did on Friday. The government had suggested that vaccine passports would be phased out next month. That encouraged some people to wait. Now, he has recognized that passports will be needed for much longer. It introduced QR codes to protect vaccine passports from fraud, but did not enforce them. Now after the fraud reports, it will.

We don’t have time to turn back. Not with Omicron.

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