Inflation could ease a bit in February, after peaking in January: Actinver

The inflationary pressures They will peak in January this year due to rate and tax adjustments. While in February inflation would begin to slow down to end 2022 at 4%, this was predicted by the Actinver bank in the forum “Seminar on Economic Outlook 2022”.

“The inflationary pressures that we have seen in Mexico and in the world have been partly due to the issue of energy and commodities that (these pressures) have been transferred to all value chains,” said Lorenza Martínez Trigueros, general director of Actinver, in the forum organized by the alumni association of the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM).

Today in the morning the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) revealed that December inflation was lower than expected since it stood at 7.36%; however, it continued above the 7.00% ceiling; with which it was located at the highest level, for the end of the year, for 21 years.

At the analysis table, “The challenges for Mexico in 2022”, the bank estimates that despite the product shocks being “undone” energy and agricultural, core inflation will continue to face upward pressure.

“Core inflation, which in the end shows us the pressures in the medium term, will continue at high levels and with a lot of volatility. We can hardly say that it will be reduced and this implies important decisions for Banco de México ”, added Martínez Trigueros.

Core inflation ended 2021 at 5.94%, the highest in the last 21 years. In 2000 a rate of 7.85% was observed, commented Lieutenant Governor Jonathan Heath, on his twitter account.

Adding to the above, according to Lorenza Martínez Trigueros, there is the increase in the Fed’s reference rate (currently it is in a range of 0.00 to 0.25%) and the cut in liquidity.

“The volatility (of the peso) is already beginning because it is not only the anticipation of prices in the reference rate (…) the conditions for asset purchases have already begun to decelerate. This tightens the monetary conditions ”, commented the head of the bank.

Therefore, the Bank of Mexico It will face a complex 2022 in the management of monetary policy and will have to anticipate what is happening in the United States, but with caution, Martínez concluded.

Yesterday, Banxico released the minutes of its Governing Board of December 15. They read that the deputy governor Gerardo Esquivel, He stated that continuing to raise interest rates and get ahead of the United States Federal Reserve puts Mexico at risk of falling into low growth and generating financial instability.

“In perspective, it should be considered that getting too far ahead of the Federal Reserve normalization process puts us at risk of falling into a trap of low growth and financial instability,” he explained.