The results of the federal election widened the gap between liberal cities and conservative countryside even deeper.
According to the director of the journalism program at Carleton University in Ottawa, Allan Thompson, this division has clearly left its mark in Ontario. The Liberals won almost all of the urban seats there while the Conservatives won in the rural ridings.
“I’m worried about this growing polarization which seems to automatically determine the results,” he says. The parties have started to take this into account in their strategy. They no longer even go to great lengths to attract voters to ridings they deem impregnable. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. “
Prior to returning to his post at the university, Mr. Thompson led a think tank whose mission was to advise the Liberals on how to better communicate with rural voters.
He is quite familiar with the terrain after twice running as a Liberal candidate in the rural riding of Huron-Bruce in Ontario, losing each time to Tory MP Ben Lobb. The latter won by around 3,000 votes in 2015 and by around 9,000 in 2019.
On Monday, Mr. Lobb increased his majority to more than 15,000 votes.
Two ministers bit the dust in largely rural ridings on Monday: Maryam Monsef in Peterborough-Kawartha and Deb Schulte in King-Vaughan.
The Conservatives also dethroned the Liberals in Bay of Quinte, Ontario, Miramichi-Grand Lake in New Brunswick, Cumberland-Colchester and South Shore-St. Margarets in Nova Scotia and Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame in Newfoundland and Labrador. They made progress in most of the rural counties.
However, the Liberals maintained their position in their urban fortresses. They won 22 of the 24 ridings on the Island of Montreal and swept the 25 ridings in Toronto.
The troop of Justin trudeau took nine of the ten seats in the Ottawa-Gatineau region and all seats in the Halifax region. They made gains in Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton.
The Quebec region, which the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc Québécois have once again shared, is perhaps the exception that proves the rule.
Allan Thompson wonders if the two main federal parties are content to keep their respective strongholds.
Nothing new
But Jonathan Malloy, a professor of political science at Carleton University, recalls that this is not a new phenomenon. According to him, its origins can be traced back to the Progressive Conservative schism of 1993 which saw the birth of the Reform Party, which later became the Canadian Alliance.
The Conservatives have entrenched themselves in the rural areas and the Liberals in the cities.
“Toronto was once a stronghold of Conservatives 50 or 60 years ago,” says Malloy. The current polarization has increased over the past 20 to 30 years, particularly in Ontario. “
Due to the population explosion in some municipalities, it is difficult to determine precisely when this growth started. Professor Malloy cites the example of Brampton, Ontario.
“Brampton was once a small town in a predominantly rural area. Today, Brampton is a city of about 600,000 people. “
According to him, the party program has helped to widen this division. For example, the promise of $ 10 a day child care is more appealing to the urban electorate or the gun debate.
“No one needs a gun in Canadian cities. The Liberals are proposing more restrictive measures because most city dwellers do not own a gun. In the countryside, they are more commonly used, for hunting or the protection of farm animals. There are practical reasons for owning a gun in the countryside. “
Prof. Malloy says Liberals and Conservatives are well aware of these differences because they tend to adopt agendas that will appeal to their political base.
The rural or urban origins of a political leader also play a role in the choice of voters.
“The urban electorate considers Andrew Scheer Where Erin O’Toole as being rural, even if they are rather city dwellers, underlines Professor Malloy. Justin Trudeau is identified as a city dweller, no one will say the opposite. “
While both parties are still looking to attract new voters, they first make sure to check whether this will alienate them too much from their traditional supporters.
Mr. Thompson says this polarization between urban and rural areas can hurt democracy. Parties should make efforts to bridge this gap.
“It’s as if because we live in a certain county, we don’t have the chance to examine the other point of view,” he comments.
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