Among the concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not have, and that his Western counterparts do have, is subjecting himself to a democratic system of accountability.
The Russian bill is for society, not for the autocrat who remorselessly cracks down on his citizens who dare to disagree with what he thinks.
Putin’s war is paid for by his people, but also the military invasion of Ukraine, and what follows, has a high global cost. His authoritarianism is the local shield and his nuclear weapons his bet for international impunity.
Ukraine is alone in its defense, because the participation of third parties would imply a conflict that would easily get out of control and Vladimir Putin knows this and takes advantage of it.
But there is something else that the Russian autocrat uses in his favor, the double-edged sword effect of economic and financial sanctions.
The curbing of technological collaboration and the freezing of the assets of the Russian banks Sberbank and VTB Bank, along with other additional measures, were accurate but limited.
And just as a direct military intervention by the United States and NATO implies a declaration of World War III, so the application of the strictest economic and financial sanctions possible would inevitably mean a new global recession.
There are two financial weapons that would be the equivalent of nuclear warheads against Russian interests, but with significant radioactive effects for the attacking Western countries.
The suspension of commercial operations in the Russian energy sector would undoubtedly devastate Russian finances, but on the other side of the pipeline is Europe. The Reuters agency calculates that of the 6.6 million cubic meters of gas that Russia exports every day, 72% is sold to Europe. Germany alone is 65% dependent on Russian gas.
The other weapon with devastating effects for Russia is to cut off access to the SWIFT interbank communication system, an acronym for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.
Isolating Russia financially from the world hurts its population, its companies, but also those on the other side of the thread. The sales of energy, raw materials and all commercial operations go through the SWIFT communication system, that is the double edge that makes this punishment, already applied by Europe and the United States, have to be partial.
The attack via the disconnection of only some banks, not all the entities that operate on the SWIFT platform, implies an attack that affects the Russian central bank, which has to face a run on liquidity and a massive dollarization that affects reserves.
Among the problems for the West are accounts payable, the interruption of commercial operations, the use of other global financial communication mechanisms, such as the cryptocurrency blockchain, and even the replacement of the dollar as the exchange standard.
Putin has the propaganda and the stick inside Russia, and the suffering of his people is a sacrifice he is willing to accept. That makes this war something unpredictable that, together with military accidents, can mean that the conflict escalates to levels that we cannot imagine today.
Televisa News Anchor
The great Depression
Bachelor of Communication Sciences from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, with a specialty in finance from the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico and a master’s degree in Journalism from the Anahuac University.
His professional career has been dedicated to different media. He is currently a columnist for the newspaper El Economista and news anchor on Televisa. He is the owner of the 2 pm news space on Foro TV.
He is a specialist in economic-financial issues with more than 25 years of experience as a commentator and host on radio and television. He has been part of companies such as Radio Programas de México, where he participated in VIP business radio. He was also part of the management and talent team of Radio Formula.