Equities in both Mexico and the United States remain among the investment preferences among economic agents, despite inflationary risks, the rise in interest rates and other factors, said Casa de Bolsa Monex.
In the conference “Economic and Stock Market Outlook 2022”, Carlos González, director of Economic Analysis at Monex, explained that, although there are factors such as the prolongation of the pandemic, the effects on supply chains, inflationary pressures and even geopolitical tensions, it is still more attractive to invest in equities than in fixed income.
“It is the best expectation of return and a low opportunity cost, which favors investment for the equity markets,” said the analyst.
He commented that “in an environment of rising rates, we consider the inverse of the multiple price and EBITDA, which is compared with the long-term bond, the result is 2.32 times, which generally when this ratio is above 2 times, it is preferable invest in variable income in Mexico than in fixed income ”.
He considered that in 2021, the BMV could end at 55,000 points, while in 2022 it would close at 58,000 units, with an exchange rate of 20.8500 pesos per dollar for the end of the year and by 2022 it would be at levels of 21.70 units.
For its part, the estimate for the S&P 500 for the end of 2021 is 4,650 points and a level of 5,000 units for 2022.
Carlos González ruled out the possibility that the stock markets present financial bubbles due to the high levels of liquidity, since the constant record of maximums on Wall Street is supported by the economic growth of the United States and the positive quarterly results of the issuers in the Stock Market.
“At the international level, we identify some risks: the possibility of new waves of contagion, the persistence of bottlenecks in the supply chain, inflationary pressures and with it the possibility of higher or anticipated rate hikes, geopolitical tensions and structural problems in China, ”he explained.