With 2.7 million square meters of works under construction or project, slow openings planned for this year and a greater influx of hand in hand with the advance of vaccination campaigns, specialists point to a recovery of shopping centers after the greatest damages during 2020 and 2021.
Through an analysis of Newmark, with data for the first quarter, he pointed out that the dynamism of shopping centers is reflected in lower vacancy rates, as well as in the growth of sales, especially online, a segment in which customers doubt about the handling of their data.
However, for Claudia Montoya, an analyst at the Newmark Market Research division, this scenario should be taken with caution, because although the figures are better than the 2020 and 2021 records, the indicators are still below the first quarter of 2019. , prior to the pandemic.
Door openings: shopping centers that we saw paused
In 2021, the commercial inventory totaled nearly half a million square meters, a figure of 2.1%, that is, 374,000 square meters higher than the accumulated in 2020, but 40% less than what was registered only in the first quarter of 2019.
According to Newmark, it will be shopping malls with self-service stores and convenience stores.
According to the report, Walmart plans to invest 27.6 billion pesos for operations in Mexico and Central America, which represents a growth of 34.9% compared to 2021.
“Its main commitment will continue in Bodega Aurrera, whose format has 2,756 points of sale at the end of 2021,” the analysis detailed.
“For its part, Chedraui announced that throughout this year it will open 31 units in Mexico and two more in the United States.”
Regarding complexes in Mexico City, next September Fibra Uno anticipates the opening of Mirikah, which is a mixed-use project such as offices, hospitals and a commercial space, while on the same date it is expected that Grupo
Danhos starts the activity in Parque Tepeyac, a commercial project in the north of the city.
Construction of spaces, an element that continues its rhythm
In the last year, 374,000 thousand square meters of works distributed in six new commercial developments were delivered, just over half of the 738,000 square meters delivered in 2019.
“The uncertainty generated in response to the health crisis stopped the delivery of many projects, however, 52 properties under construction with just over 1.2 million square meters are reported,” Newmark detailed in his analysis.
“Additionally, about 1.5 million square meters are contemplated in projects planned in 19 entities, expecting that 26% of them will be incorporated during the rest of 2022.”
the most active
According to data from Newmark, four states in the country have the most commercial projects under development:
Entity Number of projects
Mexico City 14
New Lion 6
Queretaro 5
Guanajuato 4
Occupations and affluence show that people want to go shopping
As of February 2021, foot traffic in shopping centers began to increase nationwide, especially in Jalisco and Nuevo León.
“The second half of 2021 had an increase in influx, derived from the implementation of the green traffic light in most entities, reaching the highest ratings during the months of November and December,” Newmark explained in the report prepared by Claudia Montoya.
Meanwhile, Mexico City since the second quarter of the same year has presented numbers that reflect a low influx, due to the fact that its population and commercial areas are lower compared to other entities.
“The northern states such as Chihuahua and Coahuila, as well as states with beach tourist areas such as Guerrero, Baja California, and Quintana Roo have been the ones that show the greatest recovery,” the report detailed.
Internet sales: competition or allies?
In 2021, Mexico was among the five countries with the highest growth in electronic commerce, only behind India, Brazil, Russia and Argentina, according to information compiled by the Mexican Association of Online Sales (AMVO), reaching a value of 401,300 million. pesos, a figure 27% higher in annual comparison.
Thus, the amount represented 11.3% of total retail sales in the country.
The advantages detected
According to the AMVO, there are three main benefits that consumers detect in their online purchases:
• Home deliveries (55%)
• Savings in time and transfers (46%)
• Products only available online (43%)
However, for Newmark, one of the challenges of electronic commerce is that, despite the growth in population connectivity, digital security is still an issue to be resolved.
“In Latin America, one of the obstacles to the growth of electronic commerce is trust in digital security. In Mexico, despite the increase in online sales, 41.2% of users are afraid that their personal data will be misused”, explained Claudia Montoya in the report.
“Due to the opening of physical outlets and the arrival of the vaccine, during 2021 the weekly frequency of acquiring products in the digital channel decreased compared to 2020, however, it stabilized at a monthly acquisition frequency,” Newmark pointed out.
It is expected that by 2025, 95.3 million people will be connected in Mexico.
The challenges to be met
Although the number of influx and construction of spaces continue to trend upwards, Newmark recalled that rental prices have not increased and remain stable, however there were concessions in the payment of rents, discounts, deferrals and credits.
“Both the effects of the pandemic and the closure of shopping centers have generated a drop in income over the last two years, the highest recorded reaching 22%, at the end of the second quarter of 2019,” Claudia commented. Montoya.
“It is important to highlight that some of the changes in purchasing habits, as a result of this health crisis, will remain long after the pandemic, so it will be important to strengthen omnichannel, investing in digital media and automation can strengthen customers , as well as staying ahead with the different expected expectations”.