Kimberly speers, Victoria University
The results of the 2021 Canadian elections they were almost a mirror of the results of the 2019 vote. After calling elections amid a fourth wave of COVID-19, Justin Trudeau’s bid for a majority government fell through.
It will not be an easy time for the re-elected liberal minority government to lead. There are a multitude of crises that liberals are returning to and must address, including the impact of climate change, housing affordability, opioid abuse, and economic issues like deficit and debt management.
The next elections should be held in 2025, unless the Liberal government is defeated by a no-confidence motion. It seems likely that by then, voters will have grown weary of Trudeau and seek a change in vision, if he remains a leader.
If the Liberals called for other snap elections, it would likely devastate the party, perhaps in a similar way to what happened with the Progressive Conservative Party. in 1993 when it went from being a majority to having two seats.
The future of the party leaders
A question that always arises immediately after elections is whether party leaders resign in the event of defeat or disappointing results. While some might argue that a victory is a victory, the Liberal Party may view the election results as a loss since the goal was to obtain a majority.
The air may be running out of Trudeau’s tires, and it will likely be strategic for the Liberal Party to change leaders for the next election given the general tendency for Canadians to tire of leaders who are in power for too long.
The Conservative Party did not do as well as expected. Polls had suggested that the party could win a minority government. The next step for leader Erin O’Toole will be to meet with caucus members to get their comments on whether she should continue to lead the party. In his election night concession speech, suggested that he will not go anywhere. But ultimately, the decision is not yours.
One challenge for O’Toole is the mini identity crisis that the party seemed to experience in the middle of the election campaign. O’Toole tried to build voter support moving to the center from the traditional conservative social and fiscal base of the Progressive Conservative Alliance / Reform / Alliance to a party that resembled the old Progressive Conservative Party.
Staunch fiscal and social conservatives may find this policy too much and look for someone who represents the core values of the Conservative Party. O’Toole may find it difficult to win the support of the powerful old guard.
Will the upcoming election see Rona Ambrose, former acting leader of the Conservative Party, run to take over? If so, Liberals better be prepared for a fight, and probably a knockdown.
Greens fight, NDP at sweet spot
Was a difficult choice for the Green Party. The next few months will be a difficult time for the Greens as they assess their performance in the 2021 elections.
The Green Party suffered an internal party crisis that has been leaking to the public steadily since the new leader, Annamie Paul, was elected a year ago. The divisions already existed before she gained the leadership, but she entered a circle of fire and her enemies were her own party..
The greens are have a leadership review this fall and they must find out who they want to lead them to the next election and if they can bridge deep ideological divisions in the party.
But it can be debatable. Given the lower popular support for the Green Party and the inability of Paul to win a seat in this election, the writing is on the wall for her to retire.
Support for the NDP was constant from the day the court order fell through the night of the elections. As with other parties, Jagmeet Singh’s support was similar to the 2019 results, even though he had more experience running a national campaign and more money to support his campaign.
However, the NDP is in an enviable position in the House of Commons compared to the other opposition parties. Liberals need the NDP to support them, formally or informally, and pass laws so they can hold onto power.
This also means that the NDP can influence the type of legislation that is introduced and the content of those bills, so we can expect a liberal government that is even more progressive. The new Democrats know that the Liberals would not dare to trigger another election anytime soon.
Maxime Bernier, leader of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), failed to win his seat at Beauce, Que., nor any other PPC candidate. Even though the party increased its popular vote in this election by a few percentage points, its future is up in the air as its main problem was opposing the COVID-19 vaccine mandates. What happens when the COVID-19 pandemic ends?
Governing as a majority?
Canadians may be shaking their heads at the justification and cost of these elections, but for those who support the liberal platform, it is not a bad result. If liberal promises are kept, the national child care program, climate action, and housing affordability policies could help many Canadians.
Read more: 2021 Canadian Elections: Will the National Child Care Plan Survive?
However, did Canadians need another election to do so?
What Canadians definitely don’t want is another election 16 months from now. In other words, we may have a liberal government capable of ruling as a majority simply due to a lack of appetite for other elections in the short term.
None of the opposition parties wants to pull that trigger, especially if the pandemic persists.
While this election was a challenge for the Liberals, ruling in the midst of various crises will be even more demanding and demanding.
Kimberly speers, Professor of Public Administration, Victoria University
This article is republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the Original article.
Reference-ygknews.ca