Cabinet weighs how to calibrate Canada’s response to Russia-Ukraine tensions

OTTAWA — The Liberal government is expected to extend Canada’s support to Ukraine by re-committing to the military training mission in Ukraine, but sources say a final decision has not yet been made, even as Ottawa orders family members of Canadian embassy personnel in that country to leave.

“The safety and security of Canadians, our personnel and their families at our missions abroad is our top priority,” Global Affairs said Tuesday, following the lead of other allies like the US and the UK

“Due to the ongoing Russian military buildup and destabilizing activities in and around Ukraine, we have decided to temporarily withdraw Canadian embassy staff’s children under 18 years of age and family members accompanying them.”

The federal Liberal cabinet wraps up a three-day retreat Wednesday at which the Trudeau government weighed how far Canada should go in response to Russia’s aggressive maneuvers.

Last month, two weeks after US intelligence officials warned Russia was readying to invade with a massive buildup of troops at Ukraine’s borders, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave clear marching orders to his new defense minister, Anita Anand.

In her mandate letter, Trudeau instructed Anand to solidify Canada’s military contributions to NATO operations in eastern Europe and to “extend” Canada’s support to Ukraine through the military training mission known as Operation Unifier, due to end in March.

Currently, the roughly 200 Canadian army troops involved in that operation are deployed from the 2nd Canadian division based out of Valcartier, Que.

The next rotation, if the operation is extended, would see troops based out of Edmonton deployed in fall 2022.

However, their mission is to train Ukraine’s military to defend that country, not to take part in active combat operations.

And although Ukraine has asked for more Canadian soldiers to expand that Kyiv-headquartered training operation beyond 13 locations where they currently work, it’s not clear those Canadian military personnel would remain in the event of a Russian invasion, nor whether Canada would ever send in other troops to directly defend Ukraine.

Trudeau said he was looking at “all tools” Canada has to help and did not rule out sending more military assistance, weapons or personnel to bolster the training mission. But he declined to speculate whether Canada could be drawn into a broader conflict or would help Ukraine’s military defend the country, calling it a “hypothetical” question.

Many experts believe Canada might instead bolster support for NATO’s mission in nearby countries.

There are already another 500 Canadian soldiers deployed to NATO’s Operation Reassurance in nearby Latvia.

On Monday, NATO allies including the US, put forces on standby and sent additional ships and fighter jets to NATO deployments in eastern Europe. US President Joe Biden raised the level of alert for some 8,500 US troops that could be deployed in support of the NATO defensive alliance.

And senior Biden administration officials Tuesday told reporters that if “Russia further invades Ukraine” the US and its allies are prepared to immediately impose a range of “severe” economic measures, including ones not used in 2014 when Russia seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine.

“The gradualism of the past is out, and this time we’ll start at the top of the escalation ladder and stay there,” said one official in a background briefing on measures which will include “novel export controls” aimed at restricting US- origin software, technology and tooling that would hit Russia’s strategic industrial sectors hard, “in artificial intelligence or quantum computing, or defense, or aerospace, or other key sectors,” the official said.

“Much like financial sanctions which restrict foreign capital, export controls deny something to Russia that it needs and can not easily replace from anywhere else,” the official said.

The Biden White House official also downplayed critics’ warnings that Russia could cut off oil and gas supplies to Europe, saying Russia “needs oil and gas revenues at least as much as Europe needs its energy supply.”

“Oil and gas export revenues are two-thirds of the total in Russia and about half of Russia’s federal budget revenues. So this is not an asymmetric advantage for Putin; it’s an interdependency, ”the official told reporters.

Carleton University professor Steve Saideman said in an interview that Canada “should do what it’s been doing, which is coordinated with the allies to be on the same page. So that way, the Russians … can not try to divide us. ”

He said sanctions are a tool to be used, but should not be deployed unless Russia invades, otherwise they would not have the same deterrent effect, as Russia would have little to lose. “If you do that stuff now before Russia invades then why should Russia not invade?”

Saideman also said Canada should not send troops to fight in Ukraine since it is not a part of NATO; Canada does not have a defensive treaty with Ukraine; and, he said, any war with Russia in Ukraine is certain to be costly in blood and treasure.

“The bloodshed paid by Canadians for this would be high, would be very costly in lives and dollars.”

“The casualties coming home would pale in comparison to what happened in Afghanistan,” he said, “in terms of the kind of violence unleashed.

“The Afghans attacked us with landmines and with occasional rifle shots and had mild ambushes against us, they did not attack us with waves of tanks and artillery.”

Conservative leader Erin O’Toole on Monday said Canada should do what Ukraine wants and send aid Ukraine has demanded to deter Russia, including “lethal defensive weapons.”

Three Conservative critics on Tuesday issued a statement that slammed the Trudeau government for “waffling” and saying Ukraine has been clear in its request.

“The governments of the US, UK, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, and others have already provided lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine. Prime Minister Trudeau has not, ”said MPs Michael Chong, James Bezan and Pierre Paul-Hus.

The Conservatives want Operation Unifier extended “and expanded,” with more sanctions, including individual sanctions on Russian officials, and they want Ottawa to restore sharing of RADARSAT imaging – data that was once shared but was canceled in 2015, reportedly due to red tape and bureaucracy involved.

Saideman supports Canada joining allies to arm Ukraine to defend itself even if what Canada sends would be a “drop in the bucket” compared to what the Americans and British can offer. But he added, “we need to be realistic about the impact we’re making.”

Ukraine’s demands are likely to progress to asking for more troops to help, Saideman said, adding, “we can not subject our foreign policy to whatever the Ukrainians want, whatever the government of Ukraine wants, we simply can not do that.”

Saideman said Canadian governments have been responsive to Ukraine’s plight in large part because of domestic politics. Canada has the largest Ukrainian population diaspora outside Russia.

“Foreign policy is absolutely shaped by domestic political imperatives and particularly by diasporic politics,” he said.

“There are two countries in NATO that have basically pushed for Ukraine membership and one is the United States, and one is Canada. What distinguishes the United States and Canada from most of Europe, is that we have Ukrainian populations, and most of the rest of Europe does not. ”