Economic optimism appears to have peaked. The study service of BBVA this Wednesday has revised downward the economic growth it anticipates for Catalonia this year. The entity thus joins organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission or the Bank of Spain –which also intends to lower its estimates–, institutions that have been cooling down the euphoria about the economic rebound foreseen for the country set.
However, despite the threat posed by problems with the energy price, industrial supply or inflation, the message remains encouraging. Especially in the case of Catalonia, which is recovering at a better rate than Spain and which, according to BBVA data, will be the community that leads job creation since last year and until 2022.
The entity specifically foresees that Catalan GDP grows by around 5.3% this year and 5.6% next year. This means reducing the percentages that were anticipated in summer by more than one point and the rebound of 6.4% for both years that the Generalitat calculated just over a month ago.
This downward revision has different factors behind it. The first, that the data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) leave the accounts for the second and third quarters worse than expected.
Threats to recovery
Secondly, the companies were convinced a few months ago that the problems related to the increase in the price of electricity and fuel, the lack of industrial containers and the low execution of ‘Next Generation’ funds would have already been solved. these heights. “Probably this solution is not going to arrive anytime soon and we are going to have it more for the second or third quarter of next year & rdquor ;, he has analyzed Miguel Cardoso, chief economist at BBVA in Spain.
To this is added inflation, which could contain the level of household spending and, consequently, moderate the dynamism of the economy, which has its hopes pinned on the consumerist period of Black Friday and the Christmas campaign.
“If all this is resolved, we could have higher growth rates & rdquor ;, Cardoso has synthesized. If, however, these problems intensify in the coming months “we would have a more negative environment & rdquor ;.
Postcovid scenario in sight
However, both this economist and José Ballester, territorial director of the bank in Catalonia, have focused on reviewing the arguments that reinforce the optimistic vision. “Although the pandemic is not over, it is already displayed almost [el escenario] poscovid& rdquor ;, has claimed the latter. “The Catalan economy is going to link two years growing above what the whole of Spain will grow and it will create the largest number of jobs within the Spanish economy,” Cardoso said. Your bet is that between 2020 and 2022 some 215,000 jobs will have been created.
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Beyond that, Catalonia stands out in other areas compared to Spain. According to the information compiled by BBVA, retail sales are ahead, the industrial production index is higher and exports of goods (especially in the automobile sector) and the level of overnight stays, also.
The only negative note is Barcelona, which still does not match Spain in terms of recovery of foreign tourism. Regardless of that, the consumption data extracted from the bank’s Catalan clients’ cards predict “an important and significant recovery & rdquor; and which is aimed at compensating for the low level of activity at the beginning of the year.
Reference-www.elperiodico.com