Back to square one in Ottawa

Although disappointed with the election results, the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole intends to continue to lead its political formation. When asked about a possible challenge to his leadership on Tuesday, he simply repeated that he will examine what went well and not so well during the campaign.

“We have to be ready. I am disappointed with the result, we are all disappointed, but we have to learn lessons and prepare for a victory next time Said Erin O’Toole, returning to her Ottawa studio on Tuesday. He claims that Justin trudeau will call new elections in 18 months. “We have to earn the confidence of Canadians in the next election. “

According to his analysis, Canadians denied Justin Trudeau the majority government he wanted. “I am proud of our team which kept the Liberals in a minority. “

Could Erin O’Toole be challenged within his own party for not winning power on Monday? He refuses to say it. His predecessor, Andrew Scheer, was shown the door even if he had experienced better electoral results in 2019, with a platform camped more to the right.

Two years later, Mr. O’Toole does not regret having tried to draw his advantage towards the center, with social and environmental promises in particular. “We need to grow our movement, especially in big cities and in the suburbs. “

A very similar Parliament

With Monday’s results, the Canadian Parliament is all the same. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will therefore be called upon to form a second consecutive minority government.

On Tuesday evening, they were victorious or ahead in 158 constituencies, against 155 when the House was dissolved, while there were still a few struggles to be determined. The Conservatives were on their way to winning 119 seats (the same number as at dissolution); the Bloc Quebecois, 34 (against 32 on dissolution); the NDP, 25 (versus 24); and the Green Party, two (the same number).

In Quebec, the electoral map has changed very little. At the time of this writing, the Liberal Party had 33 seats; the Bloc Québécois, 34. The Conservatives had kept their 10 ridings. Just like the NDP, which only won Alexandre Boulerice’s seat in Rosemont – La Petite-Patrie.

The Liberals lost the riding of Châteauguay – Lacolle to the hands of the Bloc Québécois. They also ran the risk of losing that of Brome-Missisquoi to the Bloc. The vote was so close that it will be necessary to wait during the coming days for the counting of the votes sent by post to know the identity of the winner. The scenario was the same in Trois-Rivières, where the Bloc and the Conservative were still neck and neck on Tuesday.

The Liberals’ few gains in western Canada were wiped out by their losses in eastern Canada. Justin Trudeau’s troops lost one seat in Ontario and ceded two to the Conservatives in Nova Scotia. However, they won two Conservative seats in Alberta and won four more seats in British Columbia.

The NDP was on the way to seeing a net gain. The party of Jagmeet Singh won one more riding in Edmonton, Alta., and two new seats in British Columbia, but lost one seat in Ontario and its only Maritime seat in Newfoundland.

Pandemic priority

Justin Trudeau and members of his government did not organize a press briefing Tuesday, the day after the election: his entourage says the Prime Minister will wait for the final results before answering questions from the media.

However, it is warned that the pandemic will be one of the priority files of the new Liberal government, at a time when Alberta, in the grip of a major fourth wave of COVID-19, calls for federal help.

In the early hours of Tuesday, re-elected Liberal ministers told the To have to that the election result gave them a “mandate” to realize their vision. A “clear mandate,” Prime Minister Trudeau later said.

“We must end the battle against COVID-19. That will be our priority, said the member for Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Mélanie Joly. We will work with the oppositions. The oppositions also have the burden on their own shoulders of wanting to work with the government […] clearly, people said, “We don’t want a Conservative government in Ottawa.” “

The government House leader, Pablo Rodriguez, also mentioned that it will be necessary to continue to negotiate with the opposition parties, as he must do since 2019. “This is a minority government, it is part of the game, he summed up. I have become an expert in negotiation! “

Collaboration of oppositions

Jagmeet Singh has said he is ready to support the Liberal minority government. “We are not going to force a new election,” he promised.

Like his conservative counterpart, the leader of the New Democratic Party said he was disappointed not to see more New Democrats elected on Monday evening, a consequence of the “cynicism” generated by Justin Trudeau’s broken promises. However, he can again claim the balance of power, with at least one more deputy than before the dissolution.

With regard to Quebec, Mr. Singh promises that he will continue to make efforts to build a link with the province which has only elected one of its deputies again, Alexandre Boulerice. “First, we do not give up,” he assured the media in Vancouver. “I never thought it would be easy work. I know it takes time to gain people’s trust. […] Regardless of the number of members in Quebec, our team will work for all of Canada, that includes people in Quebec. “

Yves-Francois Blanchet also intends to make Parliament work, as he had indicated in his speech the day before. The leader of the Bloc Québécois did not hold a press conference the day after the election, preferring to wait for the final result in two ridings. With 34 MPs, the Bloc Québécois also holds the balance of power, which it intends to use to obtain policies favorable to Quebec.

“It is a copy of what was the Chamber just before he launched the election, noted the deputy Louis Plamondon, elected since 1984. I have never seen that”

“It prevents Justin Trudeau, who wanted to have a majority for Quebec from claiming to want to speak on behalf of Quebecers when he collides head-on with Francois Legault on skills issues ”, analyzed the political scientist Éric Montigny from Laval University.

The Bloc Québécois’ top priority will be to demand a right to opt out with compensation for health transfers, according to a party strategist. Both the Liberals and the NDP want the envelope to be accompanied by standards for elder care.

Behind the scenes, we calculate that Justin Trudeau is weakened by the result of the vote and that, as a result, he risks being more receptive to Quebec’s demands. Elected officials will have an obligation of result, it is believed, because voters have made it clear that they do not want this election.

With Marie Vastel and Mylène Crête

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