Analysis: In a sharp turnaround, Australia votes for climate action

MELBOURNE, May 22 (Reuters) – Australia’s election has brought a wave of Greens and independents pushing for aggressive targets to cut carbon emissions, who will pressure the incoming Labor government to step up its climate plans if it wants to pass any legislation.

The country’s biggest polluters in mining, oil and gas and building materials face a gradual tightening of permitted carbon emissions, while Labor aims to boost demand for electric vehicles and accelerate renewable energy developments.

The election result, with climate change playing a pivotal role, represents a remarkable change for Australia, one of the world’s largest carbon emitters per capita and a leading exporter of coal and gas. It was shunned at last year’s Glasgow climate summit for failing to meet the ambitious targets of other rich nations.

“Together we can end climate wars,” incoming Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in his victory speech. “Together we can seize the opportunity for Australia to be a renewable energy superpower.”

Albanese has said Labor would stick to its target of cutting carbon emissions 43% from 2005 levels by 2030, already much harder than the outgoing Conservative government’s Paris target of a cut of up to 28%.

With votes still counted, Labor is short of a majority in the lower house of parliament, so may need the support of an enlarged cross bench. Even with an outright majority, he could face a fight in the Senate, where he will likely need to work with the Greens to pass legislation, including the 2030 emissions target.

“Now the battle will be about ambition in short-term goals, legislating a plan that is beyond the reach of any government and pausing new fossil fuel mines,” said Richie Merzian, director of climate and energy at the Australian Institute. group of experts

The Greens want to achieve net zero by 2035 instead of 2050, stop building new coal and gas infrastructure, and end coal-fired generation by 2030.

Workers will also face pressure from a handful of climate-focused independents pushing for emissions cuts of at least 50% by 2030.

FOSSIL FUEL USE

The defeated Prime Minister Scott Morrison once taunted Labour, brandishing a lump of coal in parliament saying, “Don’t be afraid.”

Since then Labour, mindful of their defeat in 2019 when they lost seats in regions dependent on coal and gas jobs, have abandoned or watered down policies that could hurt them.

Two days before the election, a senior Labor politician praised the gas industry for building massive export-generating megaprojects, which are expected to rake in 70 billion Australian dollars ($50 billion) this year.

“I want to make it clear how enthusiastic I am, but also how enthusiastic Labor is about this industry, because we know it creates jobs and creates livelihoods,” Labour’s shadow resource minister Madeleine King said in a statement. oil conference.

Labour’s key climate policies are to boost demand for electric vehicles through tax breaks, provide A$20bn in cheap finance to build transmission for new renewable energy projects and strengthen the emissions ‘safeguard mechanism’ of the country.

This mechanism establishes a baseline of permitted emissions in the 215 large mining, energy and materials companies that emit more than 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Companies are awaiting details of the plan, which envisions lowering baselines to net zero by 2050, but are largely unconcerned by the proposal.

“On an overall level, it probably doesn’t feel too different from the commitments we’ve already made,” Meg O’Neill, chief executive of gas producer Woodside Petroleum, said this week. .

Cost challenges could hamper Labor’s push to achieve 82% renewable energy by 2030, with the cost of materials used in power lines, solar and wind farms rising. At the same time, energy prices are expected to soar, mainly due to high global coal and gas prices. read more

“The next two years look dire for energy users, and whoever is in government will be under pressure for that,” said Tennant Reed, head of climate and energy policy at the Australian Industry Group.

($1 = 1.4219 Australian dollars)

Information from Sonali Paul; Edited by Lincoln Feast and William Mallard

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