Politics Insider for September 13, 2021: Plot Thickens in Quebec; Jody Wilson-Raybould speaks; Launch of the costing of the NDP platform
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Continuing polls and aggregators show Liberals are leading the way in voting intent over the weekend, a change in voting intent presumably related to last week’s debates.
“It’s a frantic race to the finish, and it’s still a very close race,” pollster Nik Nanos said. told CTV on Sunday morning. Nanos has: LPC 34, CPC 30, NDP 19, BQ 7, PPC 5, GPC 4. EKOS shows a similar trend, although the top number was a 30-30 tie on Saturday. By Philippe J. Fournier 338Canada.com has LPC 33, CPC 32, NDP 19, BQ 6, PPC 6, GPC 3, with a seat projection of LPC 142 (-15), CPC 134 (+13), NDP 33 (+9), BQ 27 (- 5), GPC 2 (-1).
The Legault factor: But with a week to go, the ball is still moving, and it’s not entirely clear what’s going on in Quebec, where Francois legault he has been repeatedly exhorting Quebecers not to vote for the Liberals, the NPD or the Greens, and appears to back the Conservatives. On Maclean’sFournier writes that we should have a clearer idea of what will happen this week.
What impact could Legault’s words have on Quebecers’ voting intentions as they enter the final stretch of this federal campaign? As of this writing, it’s still too early to tell if the needle has moved in a conclusive matter for the conservatives of the province. However, in the Mainstreet Research daily update (Sunday) morning (using data from two of the three days presented after the Thursday night English debate), the Bloc Québécois rose to levels comparable to the results of the 2019 elections. If this increase in support is translated into votes next Monday, it could hurt the chances of both liberals and conservatives to win seats in the province. We’ll have to wait and see if other polling firms earlier this week spot the same trend in favor of By Yves-Francois Blanchet team.
Blessing or curse? At Star, Chantal hebert writes that it is far from clear that Legault’s intervention will end up helping the Conservatives.
There is at least one scenario in which Legault’s intervention could generate more, rather than less, liberal gains. In the last two elections, a favorable split in the non-liberal vote between the Conservatives and the bloc helped the Liberals secure some more Francophone seats. And then there is the question of whether Legault’s good words are a blessing or a curse for O’Toole outside of quebec. The prime minister’s popularity may rub off on conservatives in Quebec, but his support could have the opposite effect outside the province. In many sectors of the rest of Canada, Legault is a controversial figure.
Debating the debate: Legault, and virtually all elected politicians in Quebec, began to question posed to Blanchet during the debate in English. The debate “has been roundly condemned for giving leaders too little time to explain their policies or refute attacks by rivals, and for giving the moderator too much time. Shachi kurl and interrogating journalists to interrupt “, writes Joan bryden for the Canadian press. She quotes Elly alboim, a former head of the CBC parliamentary office who later helped the Liberals prepare for the debates. The journalists were “acting on journalistic impulse: what makes the news, how do we hold them accountable, how do we point out when they are inconsistent, how do we explain to the audience what their flaws are?” But, he said, journalists should not be central players in the debates. “It’s about party leaders holding each other accountable and explaining their platforms and appealing to their voters. They do not need the mediation of journalists ”.
News publication: Also during the weekend, the Balloon published an expert from ‘Indio’ in the cabinet: speaking the truth to power, the New book from Jody Wilson-Raybould, in which she reveals some details about her conversations with Trudeau during the SNC-Lavalin scandal, saying that she believes he wanted her to lie.
the Balloon had a follow-up history on Sunday, in which Wilson-Raybould regrets that the Liberals have not given up the confidence of the Cabinet, which would allow the RCMP to take a closer look at the matter.
On Maclean’s Marie-Danielle Smith has an interesting interview with Wilson-Raybould about his book and his life.
Q: If the Prime Minister had asked you to stay, would you have considered it?
TO: Good question. I have thought about it. I do not believe based on everything that happened to me and the actions that the Prime Minister and others around him took, either through the SNC or other issues that happened during my time in government, I do not think I can ‘I have nominated under this prime minister in 2019.
He does not vote for the Liberals: Former Liberal MP Celina Caesar-Chavannes, who is also bummed with Trudeau, plans to vote for the Conservative candidate Maleeha shahid in Whitby, Ontario, riding the one he once portrayed as a liberal, saying Global.
Under the bus: A Toronto candidate who was dismissed by conservatives over the weekend for anti-Muslim posts on social media says it was not actually her posts and that she has gone to police for false posts. Balloon reports.
NDP cost at last: The NDP released the financial details of its campaign promises on Saturday, the last of the big three parties to do so, the Balloon reports. The party wants to spend $ 38.5 billion over five years on a pharmaceutical care plan, plus $ 11 billion for dental coverage. The party would raise $ 166 billion in new taxes, including an increase in capital gains tax, corporate taxes, and a Health tax.
Where does the PPC go? Stephanie Taylor of the Canadian Press has an interesting story on the rise of the Popular Party in the polls and what that could mean for conservatives. Canada Proud’s Jeff Ballingall, a conservative third-party advertiser, warns of the danger to the party: “They want to vote for the PPC as a protest vote, they want to get rid of Trudeau, but you can’t have both. You can’t protest and also get rid of Trudeau. It is not a perfect setting. It’s a binary choice. “
In case you missed it: the Balloon Mark MacKinnon have a long and fascinating story about the extraordinary effort the newspaper made to get colleagues out of Afghanistan.
– Stephen Maher
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