I can’t believe it’s day two of the draft and Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean is still available. This after Georgia set a record by drafting five of its defensive players in the first round last night, including another linebacker in Quay Walker.
To be clear, I don’t blame any team that drafted the other Georgia players because they’re all studs. I also don’t look at any of the selections made last night and scratch my head too much (although Cole Strange was, well, weird). I also understand why teams might be hesitant to draft Dean.
First of all, linebackers are quickly becoming the running backs of the defense. Their value has gone down and they are considered easier to replace than other jobs. I also understand that teams can be hesitant because of Dean’s size. He is not the tallest, nor does he have an uncanny wingspan. But he’s the best linebacker I saw play college football last season and he’s one of the smartest players I’ve ever seen. Some team is going to draft him tonight, and we’ll all be looking back 10 years from now wondering what the hell everyone else was thinking.
Now let’s move on to the only picks this weekend that really matter.
All Eastern times and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
the hot ticket
Grizzlies at Timberwolves, 9 p.m. | Television: ESPN
Latest odds:
Memphis Grizzlies -1.5
- key trend: Memphis has covered six of Minnesota’s last eight.
- The pick: Grizzlies -1.5 (-110)
I don’t trust this Minnesota team when it matters. They stole Game 1 and then lost Game 2 by 28 points when Karl-Anthony Towns disappeared. Or, at least, you thought he disappeared, but then he showed you in Game 3 that he could disappear even more, taking four shots and finishing with eight points and five fouls. I almost wrote him off for good before he showed up in Game 4 and had 33 points and 14 rebounds, but the Wolves only managed a one-point win at home even with KAT’s monster performance.
In Game 5, KAT played well again, but the Wolves blew another lead in the fourth quarter and lost a game they should have won by two. It’s a team that doesn’t know how to finish, and while the Grizzlies are in a similar position, they’re also better defensively, which makes it easier to rely on them in the big spots. Part of the reason they were able to come back in Game 5 was because their defense locked up the Wolves and forced someone not named KAT or Ant to beat them, and D’Angelo Russell was happy to play along. .
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Now the Wolves face elimination, and I’ve seen this team fall apart too often to think that betting on them to bounce back and play well is the most likely outcome. Sure, they can start out great, but we’ve seen it many times before, and then the fourth quarter comes along and things change drastically. Seriously, while the Timberwolves outscored Memphis 33-25 in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Grizzlies outscored Minnesota 133-81 in the fourth quarter of the last four games. That’s an average spread of 13 points per game!
Memphis finishes off the team that can’t finish tonight.
Here’s what SportsLine has to say about the game: The projection model has a slight bias toward Minnesota on the spread, but loves one side of the total..
the selections
MLB
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Astros vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
Latest odds:
less than 8.5
The choice: less than 8.5 (-105) — It’s always exciting to take a bass in a game involving two of the best offenses in the game, right? Well, it turns out these aren’t two of the best offenses in baseball. At least not for the moment. While they were expected to be, the Blue Jays and Astros enter the night ranked 14th and 18th in wRC+ respectively, and 12th and 21st in wOBA. When it comes to scoring runs, Toronto ranks 16th in run rate while Houston ranks 23rd. These guys are fighting it out!
There’s too much talent on both offenses to expect it to last all season, but I like that our chances of tonight’s game don’t get out of hand. Jose Urquidy starts for Houston, and while he doesn’t strike out many hitters, he doesn’t allow much hard contact and rarely walks hitters. Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi walks too many hitters for my liking, but like Urquidy, he doesn’t allow much hard contact, and what he does allow stays mostly on the ground. That’s important in Toronto, an extremely home run-friendly park but pitcher-friendly in other departments.
Key trend: The bass is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Soccer
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Athletic Bilbao vs. Atlético de Madrid, Saturday, 3:00 p.m. | Television: ESPN+
The pick: Atletico Madrid (+155) — I’m trying to use splits to my advantage here. You see, Athletic Bilbao have been much better at home this season, with an xG (expected goals) differential of +14.2 there compared to -4.0 away from home. Atletico Madrid have also been much better at home, posting a 14.2 xG differential there and just +2.8 away from home. But a +2.8 xG differential on the road isn’t too bad! It is the third best in Spain behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. But those divisions at home and away have led to what I think is too much value for Atletico here.
In recent years, Bilbao have been successful against Atletico, losing just one of the last four meetings, but Bilbao have been much better this year against the weaker teams in La Liga. It has cost the best, and in the first match (a goalless draw), Atlético scored 14 shots for Bilbao’s six. Furthermore, João Felix came on as a late substitute in that match and played just 18 minutes before receiving a red card (an Atlético player receiving a red card?!). I expect him to play a lot more on Saturday, and he will be the difference.
A.C. Milan vs. Fiorentina, Sunday, 9 a.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network
Latest odds:
AC Milan -155
The pick: AC Milan (-155) — Fiorentina has fallen off a cliff. A few weeks ago, this was one of the most pleasant surprises in Serie A. The Violets had a great start to the season, remaining in the top six until January, when they sold their best player, Dusan Vlahovic, to Juventus. Anyone with a semi-functional brain expected to see a drop in performance because clubs don’t usually sell their best player in the middle of a season and get better. Well, Fiorentina didn’t improve, but they held their own. I was in a great position to finish in the Europa League places for the first time since 2016. Then the last three games happened.
Fiorentina lost to Juventus in the Coppa Italia, which sucks for the club, but no big deal. The disaster is the losses to Salernitana and Udinese, as that has severely affected Fiorentina’s chances of overcoming Roma or Lazio. Particularly with such a difficult stretch to finish the year, starting against a Milan side that can control their first Serie A title since 2011. We’ve seen Inter and Napoli smother chances in recent weeks, and perhaps Milan will the same. , but I see a Milan that has been solid defensively at home against a Fiorentina team that has been much better at home all year. The race for the Serie A title becomes much less interesting on Sunday afternoon.
Tottenham vs. Leicester City, Sunday, 9am | television: peacock
Latest odds:
More than 2.5
The choice: more than 2.5 (-160) — Tottenham have certainly been one of the most frustrating teams to discover because while Antonio Conte has made the team better in many areas, he can’t do much. Given a summer to shape the roster to fit their needs, this team should be fine next season. If anything, Tottenham’s current iteration has shown us how a system can completely fall apart if a cog is missing. Full-backs are crucial to what Conte does, and Emerson Royal simply doesn’t fit the bill, as Tottenham’s results show. Having said that, it seems to me a propitious duel for goals.
Royal have been ineffective going forward, which has led to inconsistency in Tottenham’s attack. Even when they scored four against Villa, they did so with an xG of just 1.0. Defensively they have been solid and will come up against a tired Leicester side. It will be the fifth game the Foxes have played in 15 days when this game begins. Tottenham played four games in all of April. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tottenham get us over the total on their own, but I’m going to cover myself a bit in case Leicester find a way to break through from a set piece.
SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s projection model can’t believe the price he’s getting on one side of tonight’s baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins..
NFL Draft Accessories
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We did pretty well last night, and I’ve got a few more that I like with the way things have gone since then.
- Logan Hall over Pick 33.5 (+125)
- Sam Howell under pick 60.5 (-115)
- John Metchie Bass Pick 56.5 (-105)
Reference-www.cbssports.com