Why the Astros shouldn’t be the underdog against the Red Sox, plus one more best bet for Monday

Good afternoon fellow gamers, this is Chris Bengel back with you once again. I will be filling in for Tom Fornelli until Thursday and I will do my best to make some money this week.

As a sports fan, why not entertain yourself lately? This past weekend provided some fantastic postseason drama and some disappointment (I’m looking at you, Phoenix Suns). For the first time in 30 years, we had five Game 7s in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Saturday and Sunday. Four of the five Game 7s ended up being decided by one goal and two of them went to extra time.

As your resident NHL expert on CBS Sports, I urge you to watch playoff hockey even if you don’t have a horse in the race. The Eastern and Western Conference Semifinals should be fabulous with matchups like the Lightning/Panthers, Rangers/Hurricanes, Blues/Avalanche and Oilers/Flames. Trust me, even if you’re not a die-hard hockey fan, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are the highest-octane action sports has to offer and you’ll love the theater.

Anyway, we don’t have any hockey or basketball playoffs tonight, but I do have a couple of baseball picks available (I actually had three picks for you, but Mets vs. Cardinals has been postponed). Let’s hit the diamond!

All Eastern times and odds via Caesars Sportsbook

the hot ticket

Astros against Red Sox, 7:10 pm | Television: MLB Network

The pick: Astros (+105): — This is one of those situations where I feel like the wrong side is favored. I understand that the Red Sox are the home team and they only won two of three games against the Rangers. However, the Red Sox are 4-9 at Fenway Park so far this season. I’ll gladly side with the Astros here.

Houston has won 12 of its last 13 games with the only loss coming Saturday against the Nationals. The Astros rank fourth in home runs (48) and sixth in slugging percentage (.408) in Major League Baseball. They have also scored at least six runs in four of their last five games.

It doesn’t hurt that the Astros have thrived against right-handed pitching, as they have won eight of their last nine games against right-handed starters. The Red Sox will send Garrett Whitlock to the mound, who has pitched no more than five innings in a start this season. I hope the Astros offense continues to thrive and put a lot of runs on the scoreboard.

key trend: Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games against a right-handed starter

MLB

Nationals at Marlins, 6:40 pm | TV: MLB.TV
The pick: Sandy Alcantara with 5.5+ strikeouts (+125) — The Marlins have quietly developed a one-two punch at the top of their rotation in Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara. Aside from a May 1 start in which he gave up five earned runs against the Mariners, Alcantara has been terrific. Entering Monday, the right-hander has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his seven starts, including three starts in which he has allowed just one run or fewer.

Alcantara has struck out at least six batters in three of his last five starts. He also knocked down at least five batters in all but one of his starts in 2022. The trend certainly suggests he can reach this number with ease. Considering the Marlins are one of the best hitting teams in baseball, his offense should allow Alcantara to dig deep into this game and strike out. It’s also not bad when you get a prop bet like this with more money.

key trend: Alcantara has recorded at least six strikeouts in three of his last five starts