Why May 9 is a big day for Russia and what a declaration of war would mean

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 and since then president vladimir putin has insisted that its troops are conducting a “special military operation” rather than a war.

But speculation is growing that this could change in the coming days. Western officials believe Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as early as May 9, a symbolic day for Russia, paving the way for his campaign to move forward.

What is May 9?

May 9, known as “Victory Day” within Russia, commemorates the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Nazi Germany in World War II.

Victory Day is marked by a military parade in Moscow, and Russian leaders traditionally stand at the tomb of Vladimir Lenin in Red Square to watch.

“May 9 is designed to show off to local audiences, to intimidate the opposition and to pander to the dictator of the day,” James Nixey, director of the Russia-Eurasia Program at Chatham House, told CNN.

Western officials have long believed that Putin would seize on the day’s symbolic significance and propaganda value to herald a military achievement in Ukraine, a major escalation of hostilities, or both.

The Russian president has an eye for symbolism, having launched the invasion of Ukraine the day after Defender of the Fatherland Day, another crucial military day in Russia.

Preparing for mobilization?

Putin has many options on the table, according to Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at Crisis Group. “Declaring war is the most difficult scenario,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has not formally declared war on Russia, imposed martial law on Ukraine when the Russian invasion began in late February.

Another option for Putin is to enact Russia’s mobilization law, which can be used to initiate a general or partial military mobilization “in cases of aggression against the Russian Federation or a direct threat of aggression, the outbreak of armed conflicts directed against the Russian Federation ”. “

That would allow the government to not only muster troops but also put the country’s economy on a war footing.

Russian forces have lost at least 15,000 soldiers since the start of the war, according to Nixey, and reinforcements will be needed if Moscow is to achieve its goals in Ukraine.

The mobilization could mean extending compulsory military service for soldiers currently in the armed forces, calling up reservists or bringing in men of fighting age who have had military training, Ignatov said.

But it would also represent a great risk for Putin.

“It would change the entire Kremlin narrative,” Ignatov said, noting that the move would force Putin to admit that the invasion of Ukraine did not go as planned. Large-scale mobilization could also hurt Russia’s struggling economy, he said.

In addition, it could decrease support for Putin at home, as some Russians support the invasion of Ukraine without wanting to personally go to fight, the analyst said.

“If they declare a large-scale mobilization, some people would not like it,” Ignatov said.

It might still be possible for Putin to enact the mobilization law without officially declaring war on Ukraine, he said.

Putin could also impose martial law on Russia, suspending elections and further concentrating power in his hands, Ignatov said.

This would impose rules such as restrictions on men of fighting age leaving the country, which could also prove unpopular, he added.

On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was “no chance” that Putin would declare war on May 9.

What else could happen?

If Putin does not declare war, he may look elsewhere to make a declaration to mark Victory Day.

Other options include annexing the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, making a big push for Odessa in the south, or declaring full control over the southern port city of Mariupol.

There are also signs that Russia may be planning to declare and annex a “people’s republic” in the southeastern city of Kherson.

“He (Putin) will be able to declare that the Russian army won some victories in Ukraine,” Ignatov said. “He can try to use this date to solidify support for him.”

However, it is difficult to predict what Russia and its president will do, the analyst added.

“All decisions are made by one man and a couple of his advisers,” Ignatov said.

However, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said Monday that there are “good reasons to believe the Russians will go to great lengths to use” May 9 for propaganda purposes.

“We have seen the Russians redouble their propaganda efforts, probably, almost certainly, as a means of distracting attention from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Price said at a State Department briefing. Monday.

The CNN Wire

™ & © 2022 Cable News Network, Inc., a WarnerMedia company. All rights reserved.