Drivers in eastern Canada could see big increases in gasoline prices due to several factors, especially the higher cost of summer blend, industry analysts say.
Patrick De Haan, head of oil analysis at fuel-savings website GasBuddy in Chicago, predicts a big gas surge in eastern parts of Canada, including Ontario, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, during the coming days, while some areas in the Maritimes we have already seen increases.
“Unfortunately, for…really a third of Canada, we’re likely to see a big jump in what (motorists) see at the pump,” he said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca. “The price of gasoline could rise by more than 10 cents per liter. This all has to do with yesterday’s change to summer gasoline.”
Gas prices may continue to rise over the next week or two, De Haan said. “But I think the end of seasonal increases is near and we should start to see prices potentially decline in May (long weekend).”
Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, also predicts gas price increases.
Ontario and Quebec will see an increase of 14 cents per liter overnight Thursday, he said Wednesday. He predicts the price per liter will rise to $1.79 in Ontario cities, the highest since August 2, 2022. In Quebec, he expects the price per liter to rise to $1.88.
McTeague attributes this week’s increase to the higher cost of summer blend gasoline.
Meanwhile, De Haan noted the following price changes across Canada compared to a week ago:
- Prices in Saskatchewan are flat;
- Manitoba prices are up about half a cent per liter;
- Alberta is down seven-tenths of a cent per litre;
- PEI is up about 1.2 cents per liter;
- BC is up about 2.5 cents per liter;
- Nova Scotia has increased three cents a liter;
- Quebec has risen 3.5 cents a liter;
- Ontario is up 4.5 cents a litre;
- New Brunswick has increased five cents a litre;
- Newfoundland has increased seven cents per liter.
Factors behind the spikes
“Some gas stations have already raised their prices, essentially, but others may not do so for another day or two,” De Haan said. “So over the next few days, averages will continue to rise as more stations increase their prices… Most of the increase is happening right now in the eastern parts of Canada.”
The summer gas switch will have “only a one-time impact” on gas prices, De Haan said.
There are more drivers on the roads, creating growing demand for gasoline as temperatures rise and refineries wrap up maintenance before the start of the summer driving season. “While they’re doing that maintenance, they generally can’t supply as much gasoline to the market,” De Haan explained.
Despite tensions between Iran and Israel, the recent attack has had “little impact” on the price of oil, de Haan said.
“Last week, oil prices rose to their highest level (in) six months when Iran suggested it was going to attack Israel,” he said. “Now that those attacks have occurred and largely been unsuccessful, the price of oil is actually going down.”
Regional differences
The West Coast and Prairies won’t see any gas price increases anytime soon because they’ve already transitioned to summer gasoline, De Haan said. “So this is something associated with the change, which is happening last in the eastern parts of Canada,” he explained.
Additionally, he said regions have “subtle differences” in their gasoline supply.
“Winter gasoline supplies in eastern parts of Canada were quite plentiful and therefore the discounts were significant,” he said. “But now that eastern Canada is transitioning to relatively tight supplies of summer gasoline, this is much more impactful. I mean, other areas of Canada did switch to summer gasoline, but they didn’t necessarily have the deep discounts.” that would be associated with the large price swing that we are seeing.
With files from CP24.com journalist Codi Wilson