Who will win the elections in Castilla y León 2022? These are the predictions most of the polls

The campaign of the autonomous elections in Castilla y León advances and THE PERIODIC update on the diary of Prediction Market Predi to know the evolution of the estimation of scans y la most probable governing formula. The result of a research project of the University of Zurich, this electoral herring function as a stock market and is based on the transactions of a notable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.

This is the only mechanism that will allow us to follow the ultimate schedule of electoral expectations more than the polls and hasta la misma jornada electoralon the legal prohibition of publishing opinion studies during the fifty days prior to the comics.

WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET?

Last updated on Tuesday, February 1st, PSOE pierde otro escanño por segundo día consecutivo, en este caso en beneficio de la Vox extreme right, which first appeared in all the series of predictions. No matter, the formation is ultra and the new part Spain Vaciada his queens are more than looking for a parliamentarian. In exchange, Union del Pueblo Leonés (UPL) and the Socialists are the forces that are most likely to win a representative in the Autonomous Courts.

One more month, the PP wants a holocaust venture to win the elections and revive the presidency of the Junta de Castilla y Leónen manos del popular Alfonso Fernández Mañuecopero no alcanzaría la absolute majority (fijada en 41 procuradores) y necesitaría ayudarse de otros socios para seguir en el poder. The extreme right of Vox is the series that has the most issues. According to Izquierda, the PSOE of Luis Tudancawhich won the 2019 elections, retreating significant form and not tendering options to conform to a governing alternative.

The PP encapsulates the predictions with 34 escaños (now has 29), the same cosema that ayer, for that which continues to be the deputies of the absolute majority. Ese liston lo podría superar con los 11 parliamentarians which Predi the augura to Vox (he has 1), one more than in the previous prediction.

If the ultraderechists will be the most powerful force in the Cortes of Castile and Leon, the one who supersedes the most serious Ciudadanos series, which has one more to do with 1 prosecutor (now has 12). The PSOE logistics 26 escaños (has 35 years), one less than ayer, and his society in the central government, United Podemos, obtendría 3 deputies (now has 2), los mismos que ayer.

The hemicycle completes with UPL, which consults 2 parliamentarians (now has 1), the same register as ayer, and the party’s call Spain Vaciadawhich in its first electoral invitation is adjudicated 4 prosecutors, the same register as ayer. Del Parlamento regional saldría Por Ávilawhich in 2019 will have 1 representative.

With this set of scans, Mañueco has no margin margin to draw to Vox, can have an alliance with Spain Vaciada, UPL y Cs se quedaría a un deputado de la mayoría absoluta. In all modes, this series of actions can be very complex because, to emphatically, the orange formation is supported by the fact that it will not invest in the candidate of the PP until it has been expelled from the Regional Executive.

Related News

With these predictions, the post-election scenario with the most probabilities is that Mañueco is facing the Gobierno autonomous front. The options that I like with Vox as a parliamentary society (46.4%, more decimals than ayer) follow 11 distance points from the options that PP and Vox gobiernen in coalition, which had a mid-point score (35.53%). To follow Mañueco lies of absolute majority, the third possibility that predi predica, that the PP obtenga absolute majority, retrocede siete décimas en las ultimas 24 horas (15,21%). Any other scenario that does not include popular apes has over 1% probability.