Who will win the elections in Castilla y León 2022? These are the predictions most of the polls

With the campaign of the autonomous elections in Castile and León on the point of empezar, THE PERIOD is updated daily in the diary Prediction Market Predi to know the evolution of the estimation of scans y la most likely goblin formula. The result of a research project of the University of Zurich, this electoral herring function as a stock market and is based on the transactions of a notable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences. This is the only mechanism that will allow us to follow the ultimate schedule of electoral expectations more than the polls and hasta la misma jornada electoralon the legal prohibition of publishing opinion studies during the fifty days prior to the comics.

WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET?

In the latest update, this March 26th, the list of screens has not been changed with respect to March, but the PP y Spain Vaciada with the parties that are most looking to lose a deputy. In exchange, Vox y Por Ávila are the forces that are most likely to win a representative in the Autonomous Courts.

The PP wants a holadada ventaja to win the elections and rehabilitate the presidency of the Junta de Castilla y Leónen manos del popular Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, but does not raise the absolute majority (fijada in 41 procuradores) and needs to help other societies to follow in the power. Y la Vox extreme right series the one that tenders the most numbers. According to Izquierda, the PSOE of Luis Tudancawhich won the 2019 elections, retreating significant form and not tendering options to conform to a governing alternative.

The PP encapsulates the predictions with 35 escaños (now has 29), for which the six deputies of the absolute mayor are queried. Ese liston lo podría superar con los 10 parliamentarians which Predi le augura a Vox (hoy tiene 1). If the ultraderechists will be the most powerful force in the Cortes of Castile and Leon, then the mayor will descend the Ciudadanos series, which will be queried with 1 prosecutor (now has 12). In the Izquierdo Lado, the PSOE obtendría 27 escaños (he has 35 years old) and his society in the central government, United States, we rehearse 2 deputados news.

The home is completed by the Union of the Leonese People (UPL), which is housed 2 parliamentarians (now has 1) and the party’s eruption Spain Vaciadawhich in its first electoral invitation convenes 4 prosecutors, only those who are present in five of the new provinces. Del Parlamento regional saldría Por Ávila, which in 2019 will have 1 representative. With this set of screens, if Mañueco chooses to listen to Vox, you can plant the support of Spain Vaciada and UPL, although the series will be very complex.

Related News

With these predictions, the post-electoral scenario with the most probabilities is that Mañueco says in front of the Gobierno autonomous, per the options that he has with Vox in the Executive (39.22%, six decimals less than ayer) o solo as a parliamentary society (40.28%, five decimals less than ayer) are practically empatadas. The third possibility is that the prediction predi, and that it has created a point and middle from the ayer, is that the PP obtenga absolute majority (18.32%). Any other scenario that does not include popular apps has options.