The race to decarbonise transport is in full swing. Where will we be in 2035, the deadline for the sale of new gasoline cars? Unpointcinq.ca look in the crystal ball and announce, oh happiness, that the future will be cleaner, quieter and more efficient on the roads of the province.
The Legault government announced in November 2020 thatWe will no longer be able to buy a new car with a combustion engine from 2035. Soon after, the Trudeau government made the same decision. These two good news won’t change much on asphalt, as electric cars (EVs) are already on the go.
All experts agree that EV sales will dominate the market in just a few years. Why ? Because the price difference between thermal and electric cars will shrink like hell, to the point of turning to the latter’s advantage.
Karim Zaghib, who made a career at Hydro-Quebec as a specialist in lithium-ion batteries, explains that their manufacturing cost, which constitutes the bulk of the selling price of EVs, is currently $ 125 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), knowing that models like the Nissan Leaf and the Chevrolet Bolt have batteries of around 60 kWh. “This price will be lowered to $ 100 in 2023. The selling price of EVs will then reach parity with their gasoline equivalents,” says this world reference in batteries, who is now a strategic advisor at Investissement Québec.
Battery recycling being quite simple, the development of a circular economy should take place in the 2030s, when the first generation of batteries will reach the end of their life. “The metals for new batteries will come as much from natural mines as from urban mines, that is to say from recycling centers,” he said.
Once the selling prices are in favor of EVs, it is written in the sky: consumers will shun gasoline cars, already lagging behind technologically. Another tile for heat engines: prices at the pump will increase, carbon tax obliges, which will make polluting trips more and more expensive. Conversely, if the past is indicative of the future, the price of electricity should continue to keep pace with inflation, Hydro-Québec tells us. What’s more, the increased efficiency of EVs will make them more energy efficient.
The beautiful death of gasoline cars
Last nail in the coffin of the exhaust car: they will disappear from the catalogs. The automakers have all announced their gradual conversion to wattage cars. Some are already advertising the date from which they will only sell 100% electric models, such as Jaguar in 2025, Cadillac and Volvo in 2030 or Audi in 2033.
Further advancements will propel EVs to the zenith. Hydro-Quebec’s Center of Excellence in Transportation Electrification and Energy Storage is working, for example, on the development of a solid electrolysis battery, whose mass production is scheduled for 2025-2027. .
“This new generation of lithium battery will be more compact, will recharge more quickly, will be cheaper to manufacture and will allow autonomy of more than 1000 km”, lists Maxime Hébert-Bourgoin, business development advisor, research and development at Hydro- Quebec. Enough to reach Gaspé from Montreal on a single charge… Another significant advantage: their lifespan will exceed one million kilometers, at a minimum.
The explosion of EVs will lead to an increase in demand for electricity, but it will be quite manageable, promises Jonathan Côté, spokesperson for Hydro-Quebec. According to Hydro-Québec Distribution’s 2020-2029 Supply Plan, the addition of one million EVs in 2029 will increase demand by 3.3 TWh out of a total of 186.2 TWh. Therefore, EVs will only constitute a small part of Quebec consumption, even when the vehicle fleet becomes 100% electrified.
Suddenly, no break in current on the horizon, quite the contrary. The proliferation of EVs will even secure the network, because “electric motorists” will be able to exchange the energy stored in their car for a credit or a reward, thus allowing Hydro-Québec to meet demand during peak periods.
Of course, the greening of the vehicle fleet will not be without consequences. Electric motors requiring little maintenance, will auto mechanics experience unemployment? “No, because there will be a lot of work to do to convert gasoline trucks to electricity,” says Karim Zaghib. A project that will stretch over years.
More options for public transportation
As for public transport, it will undergo a metamorphosis by then. In Montreal, we will benefit from two lines of the Metropolitan Express Network (REM), Rapid Bus Service (SRB) on Pie-IX Boulevard and possibly the blue metro line to Anjou. In Quebec City, the tram will offer new travel possibilities. “The solo car will have more and more competition,” predicts Sarah Houde, CEO of Propulsion Quebec, an organization whose mission is to accelerate the electrification of transportation.
Not to mention the emergence of electric bicycles, which could occupy a central place in daily commuting. For intercity journeys, the high-frequency or high-speed train – only time will tell – could serve the Quebec City-Windsor corridor, competing with the plane and the car.
Buses and small delivery trucks are expected to become electrified quickly, as are garbage trucks and other utility vehicles. “However, there remains the issue of heavy trucking, where electrification remains a challenge due to the weight of the batteries,” says the scientific director of the Trottier Energy Institute of Polytechnique Montréal, Normand Mousseau, who is particularly looking at the challenges of energy transition.
Hydrogen or battery?
Many transport experts are betting on converting trucks to hydrogen, a technology that is already mature. However, the issue of deploying the costly hydrogen refueling infrastructure remains unresolved. The game is far from won, especially since the production of green hydrogen, which requires renewable energy, remains energy intensive.
Quebec leader in electric trucking, Electric Lion believes that the dream of hydrogen will not come true. “Within ten years, the autonomy of electric trucks will have made giant strides. Result: 100% electric trucks will be able to meet the needs of the heavy trucking market, ”says Patrick Gervais, vice-president of marketing for Lion Electric, which plans to assemble 2,500 electric trucks in 2022 at its Saint-Jérôme plant. Battery or hydrogen fuel cell truck, who will win the race? The bets are open.
At the corner of intersections, will gas stations gradually close for lack of customers, like drive-ins in another era? Canadian Fuels Association vice-president for eastern Canada, Carol Montreuil, believes they will morph into multi-energy stations. “There will be gasoline pumps, charging stations and hydrogen refueling stations”, predicts the spokesperson for the oil industry.
In the end, this revolution in transport will not only have advantages for the climate: it will also improve our living environments. “The reduction in fumes from the exhaust pipes will significantly improve air quality. The impact on health will be major, ”anticipates Karim Zaghib, himself suffering from respiratory problems.
We will also “hear” the silence, thanks to the gradual disappearance of noisy combustion engines. “It will be peaceful as never in the city”, rejoices in advance François Adam, director general of the Institute of the innovative vehicle. Make way for the songs of birds, the cries of children playing in parks and urban terraces where you can only hear the noise of conversations, the clinking of glasses and music. Roll on 2035!
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