There is much speculation about what Vladimir Putin will say in his Victory Day speech. While some believe that he will emphatically declare that Russia has achieved the planned objectives in Ukraine, and may even proclaim the end of the special military operation, others predict that he will make a declaration of war activating a general mobilization of the country. Waiting to confirm if, as a third option, everything does not end in “more of the same”, regardless of the words chosen to put the finishing touch to the militaristic and ultra-nationalist paraphernalia typical of the last 76 parades commemorating the victory over Nazi Germany, what can be taken for sure is that in no case will it say that:
. The invasion was not necessary because it was already clear that Ukraine was not going to join NATO, for the simple fact that the Alliance was not going to admit a country that has part of its territory (Crimea) annexed by Moscow.
. The Russian armed forces, despite appearances and their impressive volume of resources, they look more and more like a paper tiger, with very poor performance on the battlefield. In these 75 days of invasion, not only have they failed to achieve the objective set in the first phase –the capture of kyiv and the fall of the Zelensky government–, but they have not managed to demilitarize their adversary either, since, thanks to the growing supply of weapons from abroad, today kyiv has more and better means than before last February 24. And of course, they have not managed to control the whole of Donbas either to guarantee a land corridor with Crimea, although it is true that, very slowly, they continue to advance.
. Ukrainians not only they have not received the Russian troops as saviors, but both its armed forces and the population as a whole are demonstrating a capacity for resistance that no one could have imagined at the start of the invasion, especially if their timid performance in 2014 was taken into account. Zelensky, for his part, has become a reference central to his fellow citizens, while Putin appears to be evil incarnate for the majority of the population.
. The European Union, even with all the problems posed by Hungary, it is showing unity in the application of sanctions that are already significantly affecting the Russian economy at all levels. At the same time, many member countries have dared to ignore Russian threats if they delivered weapons to kyiv.
. NATO, badly damaged after its misadventure in Afghanistan, has regained an unusual prominence, with Finland and Sweden knocking on their doors, precisely as a direct effect of Putin’s militaristic adventurism.
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. Russia will stay identified as an outcast indefinitely, reinforcing a dynamic that will have negative consequences not only in its international image but also in the daily life of the population.
In any case, beyond the tone and content of the speech, the harsh reality shows that andWe are facing a human tragedy of capital proportions, both because of the lives lost and because of the growing flow of refugees and displaced persons, along with those who have been transferred by Moscow to different parts of Russia. Likewise, much of Ukraine is destroyed and its reconstruction will be a hindrance whose effects will be felt in the welfare of its population for a long time. It is, in short, very difficult to find something to celebrate in these conditions.