Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, Canada should take the threat from Iran and the potential escalation of the conflict seriously, says a global affairs analyst.
“We have a broader global interest,” said Aurel Braun, a professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto, in a video interview with CTVNews.ca. Braun is also an associate at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. “Iran represents a threat not only to Israel but to Arab states (and) to the international system in general.”
Now closely allied with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iran has supplied thousands of “killer drones” to Russia that have killed thousands of civilians and troops, Braun said.
“So Iran’s tentacles extend over a very large area and we in Canada, as a member of the G7, as a member of NATO, as a supporter of Ukraine, as a fellow democracy, have a significant stake in this,” Braun said.
“If (Iran) is able to control the region, has global ambitions and if it has nuclear weapons, it would pose a threat because that would give them new capabilities.”
Despite hostile relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, it was not until Saturday that Iran launched a direct military attack against Israel, The Associated Press reported. Israel said 99 percent of some 300 drones and missiles were intercepted. It occurred in the wake of an alleged Israeli attack in Syria on April 1. Israel did not confirm responsibility for that attack, which killed two Iranian generals in an Iranian consular building.
Iran declared the operation over and no deaths were reported in Saturday’s attacks.
“Very volatile” situation
Calling the situation “very volatile,” Iddo Moed, Israel’s ambassador to Canada, said on CTV’s quiz show Sunday that Israel must act to ensure that Iran “does not inflict further damage on us.”
He added that Israel needs the support of allies like Canada.
James Horncastle, Edward McWhinney professor of international relations at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, British Columbia, said it’s difficult to speculate on what Canada’s role will be since it depends on whether the conflict escalates.
“Canada was pretty clear from the beginning on Saturday that the goal is to try to avoid an escalation of the conflict,” Horncastle said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca. “There are a lot of internal pressures within Israel that are trying to force a reaction…Ultimately, it is too early to say one way or the other.”
One action Canada could take is to declare Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a branch of the Iranian regime’s military, a terrorist organization, although it said it would be “more of a symbolic act.”
Horncastle believes Iran’s attack on Saturday was aimed in part at maintaining support for the regime with anti-Israel and anti-American proxies supporting it in the region.
“The Iran attack was basically designed to be very loud, but the way they carried it out, the way it was very public, gave Israel and the United States considerable advance notice that an attack was coming and really increased the chances of that happening.” “The success of the attack is minimal,” he said.
“The way they responded was basically designed to give Israel, as well as the United States, a way out of not escalating further.”
Braun said Israel’s allies should turn to non-military means in dealing with Iran, such as sanctions, supporting dissidents and resuming sales of more weapons to Israel. Canada has not approved new weapons export permits to Israel since Jan. 8, saying Ottawa must ensure the weapons are used in accordance with Canadian law, Reuters reported.
The move to freeze arms exports to Israel sent the “wrong message,” he said.
“Basically, we are punishing a country for resisting the aggression… that began on October 7,” he said. “So we send the wrong signal. It encourages terrorism. It encourages terrorist regimes.”
One of Iran’s goals is to eradicate Israel, but Braun said military conflict should be avoided as much as possible. “If we want to avoid deploying troops to the Middle East, the best way is to support Israel and those Arab states like Saudi Arabia and others that want to defend themselves against Iran.”
Canada’s response
From the United Kingdom to France, world leaders are urging Israel not to retaliate after Iran launched hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles at Israel on Saturday.
When asked what Canada was doing in response to the latest flare-up of tensions between Israel and Iran, Global Affairs Canada spokesperson Pierre Cuguen referred CTVNews.ca to Canada’s joint statement with G7 leaders. Released on Sunday, Canada and other G7 leaders “unequivocally” condemned Iran’s “unprecedented and direct attack” on Israel.
“We express our full solidarity and support for Israel and its people and reaffirm our commitment to their security,” the statement said.
Canada said it will continue working to “stabilize the situation and prevent further escalation.”
“With its actions, Iran has moved even further toward destabilizing the region and risks provoking uncontrollable regional escalation,” he wrote, noting that it is willing to take measures to help prevent further escalation of the situation.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Saturday that Canada is in contact with its allies and is closely monitoring the situation.
With files from The Associated Press and The Canadian Press