Time is proving the skeptics right, once again. The Glasgow meeting is heading to be a failure. The commitments reached at COP26 are not enough to stop global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, worse still, they are not credible: 40 countries pledged to have zero emissions between 2050 and 2070, but only 6% of these reductions are supported in concrete plans.
The absence of concrete commitments on the part of governments is serious, but the problem does not end with them. The automotive industry that is responsible for 18% of carbon emissions in the world is not on track to reduce its footprint in the coming years, quite the opposite. Four of the five largest manufacturers in the world refused to sign commitments in Glasgow. Compliance, they say, does not depend on companies, but on many factors that they do not control. The fact is that CO2 emissions from vehicles will grow in the next decade, then stabilize and begin to decline in the second half of the next decade, according to a study by the International Council on Clean Transportation.
Electric cars take all the spotlight, but most of the world’s cars and trucks are still running on fossil fuels. In Europe, one in five vehicles sold in the last five years was electric or hybrid. In the United States, the percentage is less than 5 percent.
To meet the goals of the Paris protocol, the automotive industry would have to achieve such a radical transformation that it is unprecedented: that 90% of passenger vehicles sold in 2030 were electric. In the case of trucks, the required percentage by 2030 is 70 percent. This will not happen.
The change in the automotive industry is enormous, but it will fall short, if we take as a reference what scientists say the planet needs in order not to aggravate global warming. The problem is multidimensional and the solutions should be like that. If by the year 2035 it were achieved that half of the vehicles sold were electric, 70% of the cars and trucks that circulate on the world’s roads would continue to consume fossil fuels.
What to do in the near future with cars that consume gasoline or diesel? Those that are being sold now, those that were sold in the last 10 years, are an important part of the patrimony of millions of families in the world. Taking them out of circulation and replacing them with zero-emission vehicles is a huge challenge for the government that wants to do it. In Mexico we have learned this in the modernization process of the truck fleets. A process that takes more than 20 years and that has been tried by several governments.
What to do with the workers in the car and truck factories? The auto industry is one of the largest human resource employers in the world. Manufacturing electric vehicles requires fewer parts and employs fewer people. Unions are opposed to a very fast transition because it would accelerate the rate of destruction of some jobs. For now, circumstances conspire in his favor.
How to develop the infrastructure to charge electric vehicles? Luxury cars like Tesla have successfully advanced in the design of domestic facilities for their customers, but the biggest challenge is in the charging infrastructure in public spaces. Should it be financed by the government? Opinions are divided. The industry argues that yes, the huge investment is justified by public benefits in air quality. Environmental groups oppose this and propose increasing investment in public transport.
They are all unanswered questions. The pessimists smile. As one activist said: The Glasgow Summit removed the sugar coating from the bitter sweet that we will have to swallow in the years to come.
Editorial Director General of El Economista
Safe
Degree in Economics from the University of Guadalajara. He studied the Master of Journalism in El País, at the Autonomous University of Madrid in 1994, and a specialization in economic journalism at Columbia University in New York. He has been a reporter, business editor and editorial director of the PÚBLICO de Guadalajara newspaper, and has worked for the newspapers Siglo 21 and Milenio.
He has specialized in economic journalism and investigative journalism, and has made professional stays at Cinco Días in Madrid and San Antonio Express News, in San Antonio, Texas.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx