On March 18, 2020, the first person died in Mexico from Covid-19. Since then and until February 4, 299,711 people have died, according to data that appears on the site datos.covid-19.conacyt.mx. However, the same site says that the estimated deaths are 313,394.
But apparently there are more, because on the site coronavirus.gob.mx/exceso-de-mortalidad-en-mexico It is noted that, until December 13 of last year, the deaths from Covid-19 of 295,577 people were confirmed. The same site indicates that from the first week of 2020 until December 13, another 157,287 people died from causes associated with Covid-19, which means that until that day the disease had taken the lives of 451,864 people. That is, 138,470 more than those estimated on the site datos.covid-19.conacyt.mx.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington (IHME) has developed a model to project the number of deaths caused by the pandemic that is based on various assumptions that can be read on its site www.healthdata.org/covid / faqs. According to this model, as of last Tuesday 553,823 people would have died in Mexico, assuming that 80% of the population wore face masks.
Based on the information noted above, how many people have died in Mexico from Covid-19? 313,394? 451,864? Or 553,823?
The first two numbers, both provided by the federal government, differ by 138,470. And not only that, one counts the dead until January 4 of this year while another until December 13 of last year.
And between the numbers recorded by the CONACYT and IHME sites, there is a difference of 240,429 people.
To further add to the confusion, the number of deaths recorded in Mexico during 2020 also varies by source. On the site coronavirus.gob.mx/exceso-de-mortalidad-en-mexico it is read that that year 1 million 77,858 deaths were registered, but on the site www.inegi.org.mx/temas/mortalidad it is noted that there were 1 million 86,743, or 8,885 more. The difference is not great, but it will contribute to the number of deaths in excess and of victims of Covid-19 since the pandemic began.
Based on the above, it is difficult to know how many Covid-19 has killed in Mexico. Any of the figures listed above is terrifying, immense, and difficult to understand.
Now, if we take into account that the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has minimized the severity and consequences of the pandemic since it began, it is not absurd to assume that the corresponding data that it is disseminating do not reflect the reality of the situation in the country.
Personally, I think that the IHME projections are closer to reality and that more than half a million people have already died. To understand the cost in human lives of the pandemic, let us take into account that from 1991 to 2020, 556,320 homicides were committed in our country, a figure that is scandalous and slightly higher than the 553,823 deaths that the IHME estimates that died from Covid-19 in just 24 months.
Sadly, we will never know the exact number of victims of the pandemic and its mismanagement by the government of Q4.
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Opinion writer, columnist, lecturer, media trainer, 35 years of experience in the media, micro-entrepreneur.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx