Vaughn Palmer: Denials aside, expect Prime Minister Eby to call a snap election in BC

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VICTORIA — When David Eby entered the NDP leadership race last month, he dismissed speculation that he will call a snap election if he becomes prime minister.

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“In my conversations with British Columbians, it’s already clear to me that that’s the last thing they want right now,” he told The Vancouver Sun’s Katie DeRosa on the day he announced.

“My colleagues and I are focused on delivering for British Columbians and not about preparing for the next election.

“It’s about doing things for the people we represent.”

Of course, Eby was well aware of the inevitable speculation that a new prime minister would soon go to the voters for a mandate of his own.

“I know there’s been talk of early elections,” Eby acknowledged to Stephen Quinn in the early edition of CBC. But he insisted: “I just don’t see any interest in having an early election.”

Eby’s pivotal commitment in those early days of his leadership campaign: “I have no plans for an early election, and we will work to deliver for British Columbians by the date set for the election.”

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The date set for the election is the one written into legislation by the New Democrats during their first term in office. Eby himself steered the bill through the house, shifting the four-year election cycle from the May polling day set under BC’s previous Liberal government to the third Saturday in October.

For now, he has to say that he will wait until the fixed date of October 19, 2024.

A leader who does not rule out an early election is like someone who does not know if he will participate in the next election: he opens the door to endless speculation and ruthless positioning by other players.

Two years ago, Prime Minister John Horgan denied contemplating a snap election. He continued to do so practically until the day he called one, in September 2020.

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But even if one believes that Eby “has no plans” for an early election, one can easily imagine the circumstances in which he would decide not to wait another two years for an election.

Right now, he says voters “want us to deliver affordable housing, they want family doctors, they want our health care system to work.

“They want us to address the price gouging and they want us to keep doing what we’ve been doing to promote BC and build our economy.

Add random attacks and chronic criminals, the never-ending tragedy of drug overdoses, the clash between government and public sector unions, and the impact of rising interest rates.

An Eby-led government would face an onerous to-do list.

Many of those challenges resist easy solutions. Even with the best of intentions, there’s a good chance they’ll get worse before they get better.

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On that basis alone, a prime minister, David Eby, would be getting advice to seek a mandate while his personal brand is fresh and before he gets bogged down in the frustrations of office.

When Eby appeared poised to be declared leader by acclamation in early October, some observers speculated that he could call an election in late fall.

The recent entry of challenger Anjali Appadurai means the race for the lead will continue until the result is announced on December 3.

Too late for an election this year. Instead, speculation is moving to early 2023.

In that scenario, Eby would change the cabinet in December, promoting newcomers from the background and moving current ministers to give the government a new face.

He would present a throne and budget speech in the new year, followed by an election call for May or thereabouts.

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One argument against the spring 2023 election scenario has to do with the impact on MLA pensions.

Members do not qualify until they have served in the legislature “for at least six years.”

New Democrats who were first elected in 2017 won’t qualify much before the summer of 2023.

In the case of a previous vote, half a dozen ministers and eight deputies would have their pensions in the balance.

It has led to speculation that Eby will wait until the fall of 2023.

But a determined prime minister with opinion polls behind him could put aside pension concerns and leave in the spring.

“Just win your seat,” he might say, “and your pension is secure.”

One factor that would not make Eby stop is people telling pollsters they don’t want a snap election.

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Polls indicated that people did not want a snap election when Horgan was in 2020.

The prime minister ignored them as he did the election date his own government wrote into legislation.

He correctly bet that once the campaign was underway, the focus would shift to whether voters wanted to change governments amid the pandemic.

They didn’t, a decision made easy by bumbling BC Liberals and their leader, Andrew Wilkinson.

Horgan’s decision to ignore the election date set a precedent for the future, especially since he got away with it.

Never mind what Eby says today about planning to rule until October 2024.

If he wins the leadership, I hope that he and his advisers will look for the first opportunity to renew the mandate and renew the power of the NDP.

At this point in the cycle, an election as early as spring 2023 seems like a good bet.

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