While maintaining a high-level diplomatic dialogue with China, the United States is increasing security alliances to discourage the regional expansionist aims of the Asian superpower.
The approach irritates Beijing, which is warning Washington about the need to respect its “legitimate rights” in terms of development.
The subject was notably discussed on Friday during a high-level meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who criticized the country’s muscular actions in the South China Sea.
“I have clearly indicated (…) that our commitments to the defense of the Philippines remain unshakeable,” warned the diplomat, echoing recent skirmishes that occurred near a wreck occupied by Philippine soldiers in the Spratly archipelago. .
The Chinese government aspires to control maritime traffic in the South China Sea and has developed strategic military infrastructure on several islets while maintaining pressure on states that have territorial claims contrary to its own.
Alliances galore
Kharis Templeman, an Asia specialist at Stanford University, notes that several countries in the region are worried about Beijing’s plans and have chosen to strengthen their ties with the United States to guard against any future aggression.
Their situation mirrors that of Taiwan, which is banking on American protection to counter a possible Chinese invasion attempt.
The Philippines, which had moved closer to Beijing under the leadership of former President Rodrigo Duterte, notably changed course completely with the coming to power of Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
The latter visited the American capital a few weeks ago to announce with great fanfare the launch of a tripartite security partnership with the United States and Japan, a long-time American ally.
The Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, underlined on this occasion that China represented the “most important strategic challenge” for his country and the international community as a whole.
The United States announced in August another tripartite agreement with South Korea and Japan, who have long been at odds due to abuses that occurred during World War II.
These rapprochements are in addition to a strategic alliance concluded a few years ago with Australia and the United Kingdom, which should lead in particular to the positioning of American nuclear submarines in Perth.
A double-edged weapon
In an open letter published this week in the New York Timestwo Asia specialists stressed that Washington’s efforts to develop its alliances in the Asia-Pacific region and its capacity to intervene against Beijing represented a “dangerous game”.
It is possible, warn Mike Mochizuki and Michael D. Swaine, that China will respond by doubling its efforts to grow its own military capabilities and even decide to intensify the use of force to advance its territorial claims.
The region could become “even more divided and dangerous than it is today” against a backdrop of the arms race, say the researchers, who are alarmed by the possibility that a “military accident” or a “political incident” leads to regional war.
Intensifying diplomatic efforts with Beijing is the way to avoid such a scenario, they argue.
Standing up to Beijing
Kharis Templeman notes that conflict between superpowers is unlikely to be triggered accidentally.
The United States, he says, cannot do otherwise than to strengthen its military position in the Asia-Politics region to influence Beijing’s behavior.
June Dreyer, an Asia specialist at the University of Miami, agrees.
“It’s very good to have more dialogue, but it’s not going to change minds,” notes the analyst, who considers it imperative for the American administration to show firmness in the face of Beijing.
The experience of the last 40 years has shown beyond any doubt, according to her, that the communist regime sees any concession as a “sign of weakness” and an invitation to push further.
“When a concession is made, they pocket it and put other demands on the table. There is no reciprocity,” warns Mme Dreyer.
“The idea that American efforts in the region to encourage Beijing to restraint will have the opposite effect does not hold water. If nothing is done, the Chinese regime will simply continue its aggressive actions,” she concludes.
Read the open letter published in the New York Times (in English; subscription required)
reference: www.lapresse.ca