When you are reading this article you will find that the PIB during the quarter of the year passed and also the crime for the year to come. For the partial information available at the time of writing this article, it can be anticipated that in the quarter quarter the GDP will be reduced, respecting the level of the third quarter, between 0.2 and 0.4%, accumulating both consecutive quarters with negative crime. To date, the PIB has increased by around 5 per cent.
These results indicate that the economy is declining during the second quarter, but this decline is slow and even worse, because we are able to recover the loss experienced in 2020 when GDP is reduced by 8.5% and it will be even higher then level 2018 as of 2019 the GDP will also be countered. Así, in the first trio of the governor of President López el PIB per inhabitant is reduced to 7 per cent.
If we learn from the international experience that, if a country is not experimenting with a sustainable economic growth process, the benefit of the population will be able to experiment with sustainable growth and less permanent. Crime is not enough for a better job, but no doubt it is necessary and given that the objective of public policy is to increase the level of wealth of the population and that it is crucial to focus on the conditions for economic growth.
The president todavía has the opportunity that in the second trio he recovers algae from what he loses in the first, but it depends on that he values the crime he represents, which he has not heard; moreover, it has remained important even though the GDP per capita has increased, as well as the fact that it has reduced the level of gaining a significant share of the population.
To recover some of the loss is necessary, obviously, change the goals and correct decisions that are taken. The President must assume that he has been injured, since the governing property, the State of law generating temporary injunction against the complication of the rules has resulted in a significant contraction of the private inversion, both national and foreign. Mexico now has an opportunity to, if approved, significantly increase crime, both in short and in midfield. This opportunity you have, at least two components.
The primary is the tendency of a part of the stadium inversion that has been channeled to China (and other countries in Asia) to relocate to North America derivative of two factors: the geopolitical derivative of the Sino conflict – stadadounense and the reduction bus transport costs. Secondly, the impetus that the governing state has is due to the inversion in limp technologies that converge, at least in particular, the international trade policy with an ecological component, which implies serious imports of energy produced, with fossil fuels (gas, carbon and combustoleo). The mechanism for approving this unique opportunity we have with the T-MEC.
What is missing is that the President is aware that the national sovereignty is not in favor of the governing monopolies in the energy sector, with a population that is more likely to be derived from a high and sustainable crime. On the other hand, if it is necessary to approve the opportunity described above, it is crucial to postpone the proposal for reform of the electricity sector and to encourage a policy that encourages the adoption and creation of electricity generation from limpies, solar and eólica, including a more efficient and competitive CFE.
If the President insists on his proposal and approval, the cost will be enormous, but only because it will be a unique opportunity, if only to increase the probability that the economy will grow in the coming years, including the year 2024.
Twitter: @econoclasta
Economist and professor
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Knight of the National Order of the Merit of the Republic of France. Medal to Professional Merit, Ex-ITAM.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx