What did you do Ukraine to be in the middle of the storm? change in the Gray zone On either side of the blocs that ruled the world in the last century, the climb no eyebrow Russia he wants a promise that Ukraine – as if it were not a sovereign country – will never join NATO. But his threat of conflict only succeeded in strengthening this alliance when it seemed to be waning. As if time did not pass, again the same scenario and dilemma Will there be war?
Of independence in 1991, Ukraine remained in that gray area across the Russian border. The threat turned into war with the Russian annexation of the peninsula of Crimea in 2014 and the build-up of a separatist conflict in the eastern region of Donbas. At the time, Ukraine barely had an army of 10,000 troops, today it has more than 250,000 fighters and reservists. Putin know that a full-scale invasion, including the seizure of Kiev, the capital, can end your dreams. But it is sending more than 100,000 troops to the border while Western countries are also increasing troops in the area. Although all the signs sound apocalyptic, as in the Cold War, this conflict cannot be won on the battlefield alone. If we are guided by the parameters of the past, an open invasion without any internal or external support is a suicide practice for the Kremlin.
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Influence
As things stand, it is very likely that Putin does not want to gain more territory, but rather influence, especially in Europe. Hence the talks outside the US, with French President Emmanuel Macron last Friday, which will continue in the coming days with the British government and the new German cabinet. If it looks like you’re planning to make a model new European order, more than an open war, all the steps indicate will maintain tension and instability to ensure that Ukraine remains in a gray area permanent. For now, that seems like the only possible strategy.
Reference-www.elperiodico.com