The crisis in Ukraine can easily be compared to alphabet soup, which gives messages depending on how you look at it.
The letters are arranged and what remained hidden at first glance, is revealed as we distance ourselves from the warlike conflict that catches the spotlight.
- What else is in this crisis?
- Why should we look beyond what is happening on the border between Russia and Ukraine?
- Does anyone benefit from this conflict?
The simple answer is that no one would gain from the outbreak of war. The economic sanctions of the United States would bring Putin to an end and he would drag Joe Biden with him, because the outbreak of the conflict would be interpreted as an episode very much in the style of the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and would increase inflation in that country to 10 percent. While for Europe, this would trigger a social crisis as well as a political one, due to the increase that would be felt immediately in electricity prices, which have already been increasing in recent years.
However, the scenario changed a lot when what is in sight is a solution. At a global moment, where inflation, unemployment, and the increase in Covid-19 infections, make many governments wish to be saved by the campaign.
Because we can say that somehow, whoever solves it will be the winner, and that in the face of so many tragedies, it is no secret that the world needs a victory.
Above all, when it comes to a binary scenario that boils down to “them” against “us.”
For Putin, achieving a peaceful exit that meets his national security imperatives will be capitalized on as a symbol of strength against the West and may help him somehow cushion the discomfort caused by the increase in Covid-19 cases. the low vaccination rate, social inequalities, mafias and the deterioration of services.
For Europe, this would somehow help the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, consolidate his intentions to be re-elected on April 10 and position himself as the new leader of the continent, given the void left by the departure of Angela Merkel. While for the chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, this would be synonymous with energy security and would help him to continue earning the trust of the Germans, by not generating a disaster just months after the departure of her predecessor.
Finally, for Joe Biden, this would help calm things down at home while inflation continues to rise along with gasoline prices, in a difficult electoral year, in which his party could lose its majority in Congress. In addition to that it could be interpreted as a kind of apology to the electorate for Afghanistan and increase his chances of being re-elected in 2024.
Thus the virtues of peace over war. In a scenario that is getting closer to a point of no return. Where somehow, Russia has managed to put Ukraine on the ropes without the use of force, with the project approved this week by the Duma, in which it asks President Vladimir Putin to recognize the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk , located in the east of Ukraine.
Therefore, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, could become a key player for the Kremlin to obtain “its peace”.
Last one out turn off the light.
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